基于奖惩机制的关键链项目缓冲确定方法研究  

Buffer Determination Method of Critical Chain Project Based on Bonus and Penalty Mechanism

作　　者：张俊光[1] 王美华 ZHANG Junguang;WANG Meihua(University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学经济管理学院,北京市100083

出　　处：《管理学报》2022年第9期1382-1390,共9页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572010)。

摘　　要：为提高项目综合绩效,提出一种考虑活动主管奖惩感知的缓冲确定方法,该方法基于奖惩机制分析各活动主管奖惩感知对其上报工期的影响。根据设定的缓冲确定情境选定三重参照点,借鉴前景理论确定不同活动主管的综合价值函数和权重决策函数;计算各活动在不同工期完工时的综合前景值,选定最大前景值对应的活动工期作为活动基准工期,进而抽取安全时间并确定项目缓冲;并应用蒙特卡洛模拟技术对方法进行了验证。仿真结果表明,该方法能有效改善项目整体绩效,降低缓冲消耗,提高项目按时完工率和项目管理效率。To improve the comprehensive performance of project,this study proposes a buffer determination method by considering the perception of bonus and penalty of the manager.Based on the bonus and penalty mechanism,this method analyzes the impact of each activity manager’s perception of bonus and penalty mechanism on their reported work schedule.According to the situation of buffer determination,three reference points are selected,and the comprehensive value function and weight decision function of different activity managers are determined by using prospect theory.The comprehensive cumulative prospect value of each activity at different completion time is calculated,and the activity duration corresponding to the maximum prospect value is selected as the activity benchmark duration.Then,the safety time is extracted,and the project buffer is determined.Monte Carlo simulation is used to verify the method.The simulation results show that this method can effectively improve the overall performance of the project and reduce the buffer consumption.Also,the on-time completion rate and project management efficiency are improved.

关 键 词：关键链项目管理 缓冲确定 奖惩感知 前景理论 多重参照点 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]