内蒙古高原长爪沙鼠疫源地鼠疫流行规律及影响因素分析  

The epidemic situation and influencing factors of plague in the foci of Meriones unguiculatus in Inner Mongolia Plateau

作　　者：周晓磊[1] 万辛如 李建云 闫东[4] 邵奎东[1] 张忠兵 张知彬[2] 杜国义[4] 鞠成[1] 徐成[1] Zhou Xiaolei;Wan Xinru;Li Jianyun;Yan Dong;Shao Kuidong;Zhang Zhongbing;Zhang Zhibin;Du Guoyi;Ju Cheng;Xu Cheng(Base for Plague and Brucellosis Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Baicheng 137000,China;State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents,Institute of Zoology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Comprehensive Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hohhot 010031,China;Anti-plague Institute of Hebei Province,Zhangjiakou 075000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心鼠疫布氏菌病预防控制基地,白城137000 [2]中国科学院动物所农业虫害鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室,北京100101 [3]内蒙古自治区综合疾病预防控制中心,呼和浩特010031 [4]河北省鼠疫防治所,张家口075000

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2022年第9期695-702,共8页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：中国科学院科技服务网络计划(STS计划,KFJ-STS-ZDTP-2021-002-01-06);国家自然科学基金(32090020);吉林省卫生计生青年科技骨干培养计划(2019Q046);吉林省卫生与健康管理模式革新项目(2019G012);科技部基础调查专项(2019FY100300)。

摘　　要：目的分析内蒙古高原长爪沙鼠疫源地动物间鼠疫流行规律,并找出影响鼠疫流行的关键因素,为鼠疫预测预警及风险评估提供理论依据。方法选取内蒙古高原长爪沙鼠疫源地乌兰察布高原片区19个旗(县、市、区)的长爪沙鼠密度、长爪沙鼠体蚤指数、鼠疫流行强度等鼠疫监测数据,结合温度、降水、厄尔尼诺活动(南方涛动指数,SOI)等环境数据,使用相关分析、结构方程模型、等级关联等方法,分析疫源地内动物间鼠疫流行规律及关键因素。结果内蒙古高原长爪沙鼠疫源地的鼠疫流行周期多为5~10年。相关分析中,各研究因素相互间均有影响。结构方程模型筛选出鼠疫流行的主要影响因素为SOI、长爪沙鼠密度和温度,SOI对鼠疫流行强度(-0.022)和温度(-0.029)有负作用,长爪沙鼠密度对鼠疫流行强度有正作用(0.014),温度对鼠疫流行强度有负作用(-0.065)。等级关联中,长爪沙鼠密度处于高值时,当年鼠疫流行强度为高的概率为4/9;当SOI处于低值时,当年鼠疫流行强度为高的概率为5/9;当温度处于低值时,当年鼠疫流行强度为高的概率为5/9。当年鼠疫流行强度处于高值时,次年鼠疫流行强度为高的概率为5/8;当年长爪沙鼠密度处于高值时,次年鼠疫流行强度为高的概率为4/9;当年SOI处于低值时,次年鼠疫流行强度为高的概率为4/9。结论气候和生物因素均可影响鼠疫的暴发流行,如果出现厄尔尼诺现象、温度偏低、长爪沙鼠密度和上一年鼠疫流行强度偏高等情况,应提前采取应对措施,防范鼠疫的暴发和流行。Objective To analyze the epidemic situation of plague among animals in the foci of Meriones unguiculatus in Inner Mongolia Plateau,and to find out key influencing factors affecting the epidemic of the plague,and to provide theoretical basis for the prediction,early warning and risk assessment of the plague.Methods The monitoring data including gerbils density,gerbils body flea index,plague epidemic intensity,etc.,as well as environmental data including temperature,precipitation and El Niño activity(Southern Oscillation Index,SOI)from 19 banners(counties,cities and districts)in Ulanqab Plateau area,the foci of Meriones unguiculatus in Inner Mongolia Plateau were selected.The methods of correlation analysis,structural equation model and rank correlation were used to analyze the epidemic and key influencing factors of plague among animals in the foci.Results The plague epidemic cycle in the foci of Meriones unguiculatus in Inner Mongolia Plateau was 5 to 10 years.The correlation analysis results showed that all the factors had influence on each other.Structural equation model screened out that the main influencing factors of plague epidemic were SOI,gerbils density and temperature.SOI had a negative effect on plague epidemic intensity(-0.022)and temperature(-0.029),while gerbils density had a positive effect on plague epidemic intensity(0.014),and temperature had a negative effect on plague epidemic intensity(-0.065).In rank correlation,when the gerbils density was at a high value,the probability of high plague epidemic intensity in that year was 4/9;when SOI was at a low value,the probability was 5/9;when the temperature was at a low value,the probability was 5/9.When the plague epidemic intensity was at a high value in that year,the probability of the plague epidemic intensity being high in the following year was 5/8;when the gerbils density was at a high value in that year,the probability was 4/9;when SOI was at a low value in that year,the probability was 4/9.Conclusion Climate and biological factors can affect

关 键 词：鼠疫 长爪沙鼠疫源地 流行周期 影响因素 

分 类 号：R516.8[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]