2017-2020年山东省肾综合征出血热时空聚集性分析  

Spatio-temporal aggregation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong Province from 2017 to 2020

作　　者：段青 邢玉芳 寇增强[1] 张晓梅[1] 逄博[1] 田雪莹 张玉薇 翟文济[1] 王志强[1] 姜晓林[3] 丁淑军[1] Duan Qing;Xing Yufang;Kou Zengqiang;Zhang Xiaomei;Pang Bo;Tian Xueying;Zhang Yuwei;Zhai Wenji;Wang Zhiqiang;Jiang Xiaolin;Ding Shujun(Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,China;Business Management Department,Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,China;Ministry of Education,Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,济南250014 [2]山东省疾病预防控制中心业务管理部,济南250014 [3]山东省疾病预防控制中心科研教育部,济南250014

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2022年第9期715-721,共7页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(2011HZ061、202112050731)。

摘　　要：目的探讨山东省肾综合征出血热(HFRS)流行特征和时空聚集性,为制定合理防控策略提供参考。方法采用回顾性分析,于"中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病监测系统"收集2017-2020年山东省HFRS监测数据及确诊病例资料,运用Geoda 1.18软件进行全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关分析,SaTScan 9.6软件进行时空扫描分析,ArcGis 10.7软件绘制地图并进行可视化展示。结果2017-2020年山东省累计报告HFRS病例3753例,其中死亡病例56例;年发病率依次为1.26/10万、1.22/10万、0.75/10万、0.53/10万,年均发病率为0.94/10万。HFRS发病呈明显季节性,主要集中在10-12月的秋冬季,占50.41%(1892/3753);发病年龄主要为30~59岁,占61.68%(2315/3753);男女性别比为2.76∶1.00(2756∶997);职业分布以农民为主,占81.99%(3077/3753)。全局空间自相关分析显示,2017-2020年山东省各年HFRS发病均存在空间聚集性(Moran′s I=0.38、0.33、0.59、0.46,Z=7.47、7.23、10.69、8.66,P均<0.001);局部空间自相关分析显示,"高-高"聚集区主要集中在鲁中及鲁东南地区,"低-低"聚集区主要集中在鲁西北地区。时空扫描分析探测到1个一类聚集区和2个二类聚集区。一类聚集区发生在2018年10-11月,涉及青岛、烟台、潍坊、威海、日照5个市的22个县(区)。1个二类聚集区发生在2017年10-11月,涉及济南、淄博、枣庄、潍坊、济宁、泰安、日照、临沂8个市的23个县(区);另1个二类聚集区发生在2017年2-3月,聚集区域为济宁市金乡县。结论2017-2020年山东省HFRS发病存在明显的时空聚集性,发病热点集中在鲁中及鲁东南地区,该地区应作为HFRS防控的重点区域。Objective To study the epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal aggregation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Shandong Province,and to provide reference for formulating reasonable prevention and control strategies.Methods Retrospective analysis was used to collect HFRS surveillance data and confirmed case data in Shandong Province from 2017 to 2020 in the"China Disease Prevention and Control Information System Infectious Disease Surveillance System".Geoda 1.18 software was used for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis,SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatio-temporal scanning analysis,and ArcGis 10.7 software was used for map drawing and visual display.Results A total of 3753 cases of HFRS were reported in Shandong Province from 2017 to 2020,including 56 deaths.The annual incidence rate was 1.26/100000,1.22/100000,0.75/100000 and 0.53/100000,respectively,with an average annual incidence rate of 0.94/100000.The incidence of HFRS was obviously seasonal,mainly concentrated in autumn and winter from October to December,accounting for 50.41%(1892/3753).The age of onset was mainly 30-59 years old,accounting for 61.68%(2315/3753).The male to female ratio was 2.76∶1.00(2756∶997).The occupation distribution was mainly farmers,accounting for 81.99%(3077/3753).The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that HFRS showed spatial aggregation areas in each year from 2017 to 2020(Moran'I=0.38,0.33,0.59,0.46,Z=7.47,7.23,10.69,8.66,P<0.001).The local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that"high-high"aggregation areas were mainly concentrated in central and southeast of Shandong Province,while"low-low"aggregation areas were mainly concentrated in northwest of Shandong Province.Spatio-temporal scanning analysis revealed 1 typeⅠagglomerations and 2 typeⅡaggregation areas.The typeⅠaggregation areas occurred from October to November 2018,covering 22 counties(districts)of 5 cities in Qingdao,Yantai,Weifang,Weihai and Rizhao.The first typeⅡaggregation area occurred from Octo

关 键 词：肾综合征出血热 空间自相关 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]