黄土高原地区气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响  

Climate Change and Its Impact on Winter Wheat Potential Productivity of Loess Plateau in China

作　　者：齐月 张强[1,2] 胡淑娟[1] 蔡迪花[2] 赵福年[2] 陈斐[2] 张凯[2] 王鹤龄[2] 王润元[2] QI Yue;ZHANG Qiang;HU Shujuan;CAI Dihua;ZHAO Funian;CHENFei;ZHANG Kai;WANG Heling;WANG Runyuan(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,P.R.China;Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA,Lanzhou 730020,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2022年第8期1521-1529,共9页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41975016,41775107,41505098)。

摘　　要：气候变化对冬小麦生长发育的影响一直是热点问题。为了探讨黄土高原地区气候变化对冬小麦生产潜力的影响,以甘肃省9个冬小麦种植区为研究区,利用农业气象观测站1961—2017年逐日气象资料和冬小麦农业气象观测资料,运用线性倾向估计方法分析了近57 a黄土高原地区气候变化特征;利用农业生态区法AEZ模型计算9个站点1961—2017年57 a冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,研究近57 a黄土高原地区冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力的变化趋势,分析影响冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力变化的主要气象因素。结果表明,(1)近57 a,黄土高原地区气温表现为显著升高趋势,而降水量和太阳辐射则表现为减少趋势。(2)冬小麦生育期内气温和≥10℃积温均表现为升高趋势,气候倾向率为0.29℃·(10 a)^(−1)(P<0.01);降水量呈增加趋势,但太阳辐射呈减少趋势。(3)伴随气温的升高和≥10℃积温的增加,冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力均表现为增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为663.05 kg·hm^(−2)·(10 a)^(−1)和517.57 kg·hm^(−2)·(10 a)^(−1)。冬小麦生产潜力主要受气温的影响,气温的升高是黄土高原地区冬小麦生产潜力增加的主要原因。黄土高原地区冬小麦生育期内气温和≥10℃积温的升高,有利于冬小麦光合作用,是冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力提高的主要因素。该研究可为气候变化背景下黄土高原半干旱区冬小麦应对气候变化提供理论依据。Climate change affects regional crop production.Further research is needed on climate change and its impact on crop production.In order to investigate the effects of climate change on winter wheat production potential in Loess Plateau,nine winter wheat growing areas in Gansu Province were selected as the research areas.The daily climatic data and winter wheat growth period data from nine agricultural meteorological stations during 1961‒2017 were used to analyze the characteristics of climate change in Loess Plateau in recent 57 years by the linear trend method and to calculate the light and temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity during the same time according to the AEZ model.Based on this,the variation trend of light and temperature productivity potential of winter wheat and its major influencing factors were analyzed.The results showed that(1)during the study period,temperature in the Loess Plateau showed an increasing trend,while precipitation and solar radiation showed a decreasing trend;(2)during the growing period of winter wheat,temperature and the accumulated temperature that≥10℃showed an increasing trend,and precipitation also increased,but solar radiation showed a decreasing trend;and(3)with the increase of temperature and≥10℃accumulated temperature,both light-temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity of winter wheat showed an increasing trend.Above all,the production potential of winter wheat was mainly affected by temperature,and the increase of temperature resulted in the improvement of photosynthesis and brought in an increase of the production potential of winter wheat in Loess Plateau.

关 键 词：气候变化 光温生产潜力 气候生产潜力 冬小麦 黄土高原地区 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学] X16[农业科学—农业基础科学]