基于情景分析的关中城市群机动车污染物排放控制研究  

Study on the Control Strategy of Vehicle Emission Based on Scenario Analysis in Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：陶双成[1] 黄山倩 高硕晗 熊新竹 郝艳召[2] 邓顺熙[3] TAO Shuangcheng;HUAGN Shanqian;GAO Shuohan;XIONG Xinzhu;HAO Yanzhao;DENG Shunxi(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,P.R.China;School of Automobile,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,P.R.China;School of Water and Environment,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029 [2]长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安710064 [3]长安大学水利与环境学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2022年第8期1573-1581,共9页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51478045);陕西省科技统筹创新工程项目(2012KTZB03-01-04);交通运输行业重点科技项目(2019-MS5-085,2021-MS5-131)。

摘　　要：城市群机动车污染物排放对区域环境空气质量影响明显,定量研究典型策略下城市群机动车污染物排放总量控制成效是科学制定降碳减排措施的基本依据。结合关中城市群机动车保有量和运行状态等参数对MOVES模型进行本地化修正,模拟分析了提高油品质量、淘汰黄标车、使用替代燃料和车辆限行等4种控制策略下的污染物减排效果。结果显示,燃油标准从国Ⅲ提高到国Ⅳ后,主要污染物总量都有所削减,其中一氧化碳(CO)的削减量达7.45×10^(4) t,占全部污染物总减排量的85%左右,其次是氮氧化物(NO_(x))和二氧化硫(SO_(2));不同车型污染物减排差异较大,其中小客车的CO、NO_(x)和挥发性有机物(VOCs)减排明显,分别占所有车型相应污染物总减排量的36%、43%和23%;重型货车PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)和SO_(2)的减排量大,分别占所有车型相应污染物总减排量的54.2%、54.4%和34.4%。国Ⅴ油替代国Ⅲ油的污染物减排规律基本一致,但减排效果更明显,其中NO_(x)、VOCs、CO的减排增幅分别达到62.82%、65.61%和66.9%。淘汰黄标车后CO、NO_(x)和VOCs总量减排效果最突出,分别为4.43×10^(4)、1.25×10^(4)和0.416×10^(4) t。天然气作为替代燃料后,大型汽油客车NH_(3)和SO_(2)、VOCs、甲醛(HCHO)实现零排放,大型柴油客车的PM_(2.5)减排达95%,小客车VOCs实现零排放。交通限行后燃油颗粒物、有机污染物、常规污染物减排效果在8.51%—20.41%,交通限行对货车污染物排放削减率总体高于客车类,载货汽车的NO_(x)、CO和VOCs减排效果显著,分别占相应污染物削减量的73%、39%和53%。单一控制措施下,交通限行和淘汰黄标车对颗粒物和常规污染物NO_(x)、SO_(2)和CO减排效果明显,提高油品质量对CO、甲烷(CH_(4))和苯的减排超过20%以上对SO_(2)减排最高达82.67%。针对减排的目标污染物不同,合理组合减排策略可提高整体减排效果。The impact of motor vehicle pollutant emissions in urban agglomerations on regional environmental air quality is evident.Quantitative studies of the effectiveness of controlling total motor vehicle pollutant emissions in urban agglomerations under typical strategies provide a basic foundation for scientific formulation of carbon reduction and emission reduction measures.In this study,the MOVES model was modified locally by combining the parameters of motor vehicle ownership and operation status in the Guanzhong urban agglomeration,and the effects of pollutant emission reduction under four control strategies were simulated and analyzed.The four strategies included improving oil quality,eliminating yellow-label vehicles,using alternative fuels,and restricting vehicle traffic.The results showed that after the fuel standard was improved from ChinaⅢto ChinaⅣ,the total amount of major pollutants has reduced,among which the reduction of carbon monoxide(CO)reached 7.45×10^(4) t,accounting for about 85%of the total reduction of all pollutants,followed by nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))and sulfur dioxide(SO_(2));the reduction of pollutants varied greatly among different vehicle models,and CO,NO_(x) and volatile organic compounds(VOCs)have reduced in small passenger vehicles.Organic compounds(VOCs)emission reduction was obvious,accounting for 36%,43%and 23%of the total emission reduction of the corresponding pollutants of all models;heavy-duty trucks PM_(10),PM_(2.5) and SO_(2) emission reduction,accounting for 54.2%,54.4%and 34.4%of the total emission reduction of the corresponding pollutants of all models.China V oil and ChinaⅢoil pollutant emission reduction patterns are basically the same,but the emission reduction effect of the former one was more evident.Particularly,the reduction of NO_(x),VOCs,CO emission increased 62.82%,65.61%and 66.9%,respectively.The total emission reduction effects of CO,NO_(x) and VOCs(4.43×10^(4) t,1.25×10^(4) t and 0.416×10^(4) t,respectively)were most prominent after the phase-out of yell

关 键 词：机动车污染 控制策略 MOVES模型 情景分析 关中城市群 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]