中国农业部门经济增长核算:1982—2015年  

Accounting for Economic Growth in China’s Agricultural Sector:1982—2015

作　　者：樊茂清[1] 包时鹏 FAN Maoqing;BAO Shipeng(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第5期106-114,共9页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573291);国家社会科学基金面上项目(17BJY103)。

摘　　要：基于1981—2015年中国投入产出表以及各行业劳动与资本投入等数据,核算了劳动投入、资本投入、中间投入以及全要素生产率对中国农业部门经济增长的贡献,并基于各类要素投入质量改善贡献考察了中国农业部门各要素投入的增长潜力。结果显示,全要素生产率与要素投入对中国农业部门经济增长的贡献率由“三七”结构转向“七三”结构,全要素生产率成为中国农业部门经济持续增长的主要源泉;农业部门劳动力数量流失严重,致使劳动投入萎缩,导致2001—2015年劳动投入对中国农业部门经济增长产生抑制作用;1982—2000年要素投入质量改善整体贡献大致呈倒“V”型态势,2001—2015年趋于稳定,2006—2015年要素投入质量改善贡献几乎完全源自中间投入。可见,实现中国农业经济持续高质量增长,应进一步提高劳动投入与资本投入质量以及全要素生产率,重视农业部门人力资本积累,推动农业生产经营集中化、产业化。Based on Chinese input-output table and data of labor input and capital input in various industries from 1981 to 2015,this paper calculated the contribution of labor input,capital input,intermediate input and total factor productivity to China’s agricultural sector economic growth.Moreover,it examined the growth potential of each factor’s input in the agricultural sector depending on their contribution to quality improvement.The results show that the ratio of the contribution of total factor productivity and factor input to the economic growth of China’s agricultural sector has changed from“three to seven”to“seven to three”and total factor productivity has become the main factor of sustainable agricultural growth in China.The serious loss of labor force in agricultural sector resulted in the reduction in labor input,which led to the inhibiting effect of labor input on China’s agricultural growth from 2001 to 2015.From 1982 to 2000,the overall contribution of factor input to quality improvement was in the shape of inverted“U”,and tended to be stable from 2001 to 2015,and from 2006 to 2015,the contribution was almost entirely derived from intermediate inputs.Therefore,to achieve sustainable and high-quality growth of China’s agricultural economy,it is necessary to further improve the quality of labor input and capital input,as well as total factor productivity,attach importance to the accumulation of human capital in the agricultural sector,and promote the centralization and industrialization of agricultural production and operation.

关 键 词：农业经济 增长核算 要素质量改善 全要素生产率 KLEMS数据集 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济] F061.2