基于灰色关联法的长三角地区典型低温灾害危险性评估和区划  

Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Typical Low Temperature Disasters in Yangtze River Delta Area Based on Grey Correlation Method

作　　者：王宇豪 王金虎[1,2,3,4] 周纬欣 王钰尧 苏航 WANG Yuhao;WANG Jinhu;ZHOU Weixin;WANG Yuyao;SU Hang(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Open Laboratory of Aerosol and Cloud Precipitation,China Meteorological Administration,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Nanjing Xinda Institute of Safety and Emergency Management,Nanjing 210044,China;Liaoning Meteorological Observatory,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]中国科学院中层大气和全球环境探测重点实验室,北京100029 [4]南京信大安全应急管理研究院,江苏南京210044 [5]辽宁省气象台,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《防灾科技学院学报》2022年第3期17-27,共11页Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41905026);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20170945);南京信息工程大学人才启动基金资助项目(2016r028)。

摘　　要：利用长三角地区222个气象站1971—2020年的逐日气温、降水数据,基于不同低温灾害的等级划分构建评估指标体系,采用灰色关联法确定气象指标权重,计算长三角地区三类典型低温灾害(寒潮、霜冻、冰冻)致灾危险性指数并对低温灾害危险性进行综合评估与区划。结果表明:(1)降温幅度对寒潮影响最大,平均气温对霜冻影响最大,最低气温对冰冻影响最大;(2)低温灾害各等级危险性指数与纬度、海拔有明显的正向关系,随着等级的提升危险性高值也越集中于纬度、海拔较高的地区,通过比较1月多年平均气温可知低温是影响长三角低温灾害危险性的主要因素;(3)计算得到的综合危险性区划表明,危险区等级由南向北递增,并且同一纬度上内陆高于沿海,高危险地区主要集中于34°N以北及皖南和皖西山区,低危险性地区主要分布在长江以南的平原地带。Analyzing the daily temperature and precipitation data of 222 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Delta from 1971 to 2020,we determined meteorological factors in the assessment process of low temperature disaster based on the grade of different low temperature disasters and the weight of them by the grey correlation method.On this basis,we calculated the risk indexes of three typical low temperature disasters(the cold wave,frost,freezing)in the Yangtze River Delta area,and further comprehensively assessed and regionalized the risk.As the results show,(1)The maximum weight index of cold wave,frost and freezing is the cooling range,average temperature and minimum temperature respectively.(2)The risk index of low temperature disaster in each grade has a significant positive correlation with latitude and altitude,and with the increase of the grade,the highest risk is more distributed in the higher latitude and altitude areas.Comparing the mean temperature in January for 50 years,it can be seen that the low temperature is the main factor affecting the risk of low temperature disaster in the Yangtze River Delta area.(3)The comprehensive risk regionalization results show that the grade of risk area increases from south to north,which is higher in the inland than that in the coast at the same latitude in the study area.The high risk areas are mainly located to the north area of 34°N and in the mountainous areas of south and west Anhui,while the low risk areas are mainly located in the plains to the south of the Yangtze River.

关 键 词：长三角 低温灾害 灰色关联法 危险性区划 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学] X43[农业科学—农业基础科学]