宏观审慎政策、外汇储备与三元悖论中间化——基于24个新兴市场国家的实证分析  

Macro-prudential Policy,Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Intermediation of Mundellian Trilemma:An Empirical Analysis Based on 24 Emerging Market Countries

作　　者：周姝彤 ZHOU Shu-tong(School of Marxism,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130117,China;School of Economics and Management,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学马克思主义学院,长春130117 [2]东北师范大学经济与管理学院,长春130117

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2022年第10期52-64,共13页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：吉林省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目“哈长城市群建设中的产业集聚新机遇”(JJKH20210143SK)。

摘　　要：三元悖论从“角点解”向“非角点解”转化的过程,即三元悖论中间化,有助于实现金融稳定的政策目标。分析了三元悖论中间化过程,并以24个新兴市场国家1990—2019年的平衡面板数据为研究对象,采用面板门槛回归等方法深入探讨宏观审慎政策、外汇储备对三元悖论中间化的门槛特征以及变量间的数量关系。结果表明:新兴市场国家在持有一定外汇储备规模的前提下,宏观审慎政策有助于三元悖论中间化,但是外汇储备规模不宜过高,以避免影响宏观审慎政策对三元悖论中间化的调控效果。The transformation of the Mundellian Trilemma from“corner solution”to“non-corner solution”,that is,the intermediation of the Mundellian Trilemma,is helpful to achieve the policy goal of financial stability.This paper analyzes the intermediation process of Mundellian Trilemma.Taking the balanced panel data of 24 emerging market countries from 1990 to 2019 as the research objects,this paper thoroughly discusses the threshold characteristics of macro-prudential policy and foreign exchange reserves on Mundellian Trilemma intermediation,and the quantitative relationships between variables by using panel threshold regression and other methods.The results show that under the premise of holding a certain scale of foreign exchange reserves,the macro-prudential policy is conducive to the intermediation of Mundellian Trilemma,but the scale of foreign exchange reserves should not be too high to avoid affecting the regulation effect of macro-prudential policy on the intermediation of Mundellian Trilemma.

关 键 词：三元悖论中间化 宏观审慎政策 外汇储备 面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F831.0[经济管理—金融学]