2018年-2019年重庆蚕豆赤斑病发生情况及预测模型的建立  

Disease occurrence and establishment of prediction model of faba bean chocolate spot in Chongqing from 2018 to 2019

作　　者：龙珏臣 杜成章[1] 王萍[1] 张晓春[1] 刘剑飞[1] 张微微 王强[1] 刘帮银 余雪源 陈红[1] 张继君[1] LONG Juechen;DU Chengzhang;WANG Ping;ZHANG Xiaochun;LIU Jianfei;ZHANG Weiwei;WANG Qiang;LIU Bangyin;YU Xueyuan;CHEN hong;ZHANG Jijun(Chongqing Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Chongqing 400050,China;Hechuan Economic Crops Development Guidance Station,Chongqing 401520,China;Hechuan Grain Oil Crops Development Guidance Station,Chongqing 401520,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市农业科学院,重庆400050 [2]重庆市合川区经济作物发展指导站,重庆401520 [3]重庆市合川区粮油作物发展指导站,重庆401520

出　　处：《植物保护》2022年第5期291-297,共7页Plant Protection

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0651);重庆市农业科学院农业发展资金项目(NKY-2021AC015);国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-08);重庆市特色杂粮创新示范团队(CQYC201903216)。

摘　　要：蚕豆赤斑病是世界蚕豆各产区及我国东南沿海和长江流域地区生产中最主要的病害之一。本研究连续2年对重庆地区29个区县的蚕豆赤斑病发生情况开展了调查。调查结果显示,城口县发病最轻,两年平均病情指数为40.9,长寿区发病最重,两年平均病情指数为73.4。4个自然生态区中,秦巴山地常绿阔-落叶林生态区的发病最轻,两年平均病情指数为47.3。三峡库区平行岭谷农林复合生态区发病最重,两年平均病情指数为68.4。相关性分析和通径分析结果表明,1月相对湿度、1月平均风速、3月降水量、3月相对湿度在蚕豆赤斑病的发生过程中起主导作用。此外,11月平均风速对病情的发展产生较强的负向效应。在以上研究基础上初步建立了基于重庆地区蚕豆赤斑病发生规律的病害预测模型:Y=35.01946-3.01618 X_(7)-5.5758 X_(9)+0.5679 X_(27)+0.1586 X_(29),模型表明,11月平均风速(X_(7))、1月平均风速(X_(9))、1月相对湿度(X_(27))、3月相对湿度(X_(29))与病情指数(Y)有较强的线性关系。本模型的建立为蚕豆赤斑病的防控提供了技术支撑。Chocolate spot is one of the most important diseases in faba bean production areas in the world and in the southeast coastal areas and the Yangtze River basin of China.We investigated the occurrence of chocolate spot in 29 districts and counties of Chongqing for 2 years.The results showed that the incidence in Chengkou county was the least severe,with the two-year average disease index of 40.9,while that in Changshou district was the most severe,with the two-year average disease index of 73.4.Among the four natural ecological areas,the incidence of the disease was the least in the evergreen broad-deciduous forest ecological area of Qinba mountain,with an average disease index of 47.3 in two years.In the three Gorges reservoir area,parallel range-valley agroforestry ecological area,the disease was the most serious,and the average disease index in two years was 68.4.The results of correlation analysis and regression analysis showed that the relative humidity in January,the average wind speed in January,the precipitation in March and the relative humidity in March played a leading role in the occurrence of chocolate spot.On the basis of the above research,a disease prediction model based on the occurrence rule of faba bean chocolate spot in Chongqing was established:Y=35.01946-3.01618 X_(7)-5.5758 X_(9)+0.5679 X_(27)+0.1586 X_(29),The model showed that the average wind speed in November(X_(7)),the average wind speed in January(X_(9)),the relative humidity in January(X_(27))and the relative humidity in March(X_(29))had a strong linear relationship with the disease index(Y).The establishment of this model provides technical support for the prevention and control of faba bean chocolate spot.

关 键 词：蚕豆赤斑病 气象因子 相关分析 回归分析 预测模型 

分 类 号：S435.23[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]