南京国民政府初期的民意调查  

Public-Opinion Polls in the Early Period of Nanjing National Government

作　　者：杨勉 杨天宏[2] YANG Mian;YANG Tianhong

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学商学院,成都610066 [2]四川大学历史文化学院,成都610064

出　　处：《经济社会史评论》2022年第3期45-63,127,共20页Economic and Social History Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标课题“中国国会会议史”(19ZDA210)的阶段成果。

摘　　要：南京国民政府统治初期,国民党上海特别市党部先后举办反日民意测验、元旦民意测验、总理纪念周民意测验和对俄民意测验。与近代民调多为学校、民办报刊及社会团体举办不同,这四次民调属官办,被纳入国民党的“党化教育”范畴。国民党上海党部通过各种方式动员、规范并指导民调。四次民调收回的有效答卷超过4万份,调查结论与真实民意并不完全吻合。大体言之,涉及外交的调查结论与通过其他多种渠道反映的民意相对一致。这与列强侵略下国人的民族主义诉求高涨有关。而涉及内政的调查数据则与其他渠道反映的民意存在明显差距。原因在于国民党的“党化教育”使被调查者偏离真实的民意表达。尽管如此,这几次官办民调,对全面认知近代中国的民意调查与民意,仍具较高价值。In the early days of the Nanjing National Government, the Shanghai party headquarters of Kuomintang successively held anti-Japanese opinion polls, New Year’s Day opinion polls, Premier’s Memorial Week opinion polls and the opinion polls on Russia. Unlike modern polls, which were mostly held by schools, private media and social organizations, these four polls were run by the government and were included in the Kuomintang’s “party education”. The Shanghai party headquarters of Kuomintang mobilized, standardized and guided the opinion polls in various ways. More than 40,000 valid answer sheets were collected in the four polls, and the survey conclusions were not completely consistent with the real public opinions. Generally speaking, the survey conclusions involving diplomacy were relatively consistent with the public opinions reflected through other channels. This was related to the rising nationalist demands of the Chinese people under the invasion of the great powers. However, there was a clear gap between the survey data related to internal affairs and public opinions reflected by other channels. The reason was that the Kuomintang’s “party education” made the respondents deviate from the true expression of public opinions. Nevertheless, these official polls were still of high value for a comprehensive understanding of public-opinion polls and public opinions in modern China.

关 键 词：南京国民政府 官办民调 真实民意 合离 

分 类 号：D693[政治法律—政治学] K262.9[政治法律—中外政治制度]