基于动态演化的大学生网络舆情预警模型研究  

Early-warning Model for Undergraduate Public Opinion with Dynamic Evolution

作　　者：李川 朱学芳[1] 富子元 Li Chuan;Zhu Xuefang;Fu Ziyuan(School of Information Management,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学信息管理学院,南京210023 [2]安徽财经大学管理科学与工程学院,蚌埠233030

出　　处：《数据分析与知识发现》2022年第8期97-109,共13页Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery

基　　金：安徽省高校科学研究重点项目(项目编号:SK2021A0252);安徽财经大学科学研究项目(项目编号:ACKYC21057)的研究成果之一。

摘　　要：【目的】研究社会演化分析和系统动力学方法在大学生舆情预警及策略研判的应用。【方法】基于用户行为理论进行舆情系统分析,利用系统动力学仿真分析舆情要素、官方机构、社会媒体、大学生及互联网环境对舆情的作用机理,构建大学生网络舆情预警系统动力学模型。【结果】通过三组仿真实验对模型假设进行分析判断,验证了舆情控制要素的影响范围,证伪了公信力的控制效应,较其他模糊认知模型,ACR提升1.4%,CPT降低50%。【局限】由于关联因素的提取依赖研究对象和环境演化,模型需要持续优化,按照子系统划分组织专业团队检验调整。【结论】运用仿真拟合实验法初步得出了预警机制、官方公信力、事件属性等控制要素对舆情的影响,并以此提出一种面向大学生舆情问题的信息分析方法。[Objective]This paper tries to examine the social evolution analysis and System Dynamics for early warning strategies of undergraduates’public opinion administration.[Methods]We conducted system analysis for public opinion based on user behavior theory.We analyzed the mechanism among undergraduates,official institutions,Internet environment,public opinion elements and social media with System Dynamics(SD).Finally,we built a new SD model for the early warning system of public opinion.[Results]We evaluated our model with three simulation experiments.The influence range of control elements was verified,while the control effect of credibility was falsified.Compared with other fuzzy cognitive models,our algorithm’s ACR increased by 1.4%and the CPT reduced by 50%.[Limitations]Extracting related factors depends on the research object and environmental evolution,and our model needs to be continuously optimized in the future.[Conclusions]The proposed model creates an early warning mechanism for public opinion from the undergraduate communities.

关 键 词：大学生舆情 预警分析 系统动力学 仿真实验 

分 类 号：G202[文化科学—传播学]