建筑坍塌事故发生机理的尖点突变模型及应用  

Cusp catastrophe model of construction collapse accident mechanism and its application

作　　者：李珏[1,2] 韩梅 LI Jue;HAN Mei(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Intelligent Construction,Operation&Maintenance Management of Transportation Infrastructure Key College Laboratory of Hunan Province,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [2]长沙理工大学交通基础设施智慧建造与运维管理湖南省高等学校重点实验室,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2022年第9期2766-2775,共10页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2021JJ30744);湖南省教育厅科研项目(20K011)。

摘　　要：为研究坍塌事故的发生机理,探索建筑施工系统随风险因素变化而发生坍塌事故的过程,有效预防坍塌事故的发生。基于突变理论,将建筑施工系统中人的因素、物的因素、环境因素和管理因素作为系统的控制变量,建筑施工系统的安全状态作为状态变量,建立坍塌事故随时间变化的动态尖点突变模型,通过模型分析事故致因的演化机理。利用2013~2019年中国发生的237例坍塌事故报告,对系统的控制变量、固有特征量、关键参数和系统的突变风险值进行量化。选取典型坍塌事故案例,建立风险-事故突变树,以表明事故的具体发生过程和风险因素之间的关系。利用Python对坍塌事故的尖点突变数据进行仿真,对事故发生机理进行定性和定量的分析,验证该模型的有效性。研究结果表明:当系统的2个控制变量发生突跳且与分叉集相交时,系统才有可能发生突变,进而发生坍塌事故,事故严重程度与控制变量的突跳值相关。系统中风险能量的释放导致风险值的积累,坍塌事故的发生是系统风险值不断积累的过程。可以通过改变控制变量的状态来降低坍塌事故的发生概率,提前进行人工干预,减小突跳值,防止事故的恶化。该尖点突变模型能够阐述建筑施工系统的突变机理,为坍塌事故的预防和控制提供新思路。In order to study the mechanism of collapse accident and prevent collapse accident effectively,the process of collapse accident occurred with the change of risk factors in construction system was deeply explored.Based on catastrophe theory,human factors,material factors,environmental factors and management factors were regarded as the control variables of the system.The construction system of safety status was regardedas state variables.The dynamic cusp catastrophe model of collapse accident with time was established,and the evolutionary mechanism of accident cause was analyzed by the model.The control variables,inherent characteristics,key parameters and catastrophe risk of the system were quantified based on 237 collapse accident reports in China from 2013 to 2019.A risk-accident catastrophe tree was established by selecting typical collapse accident cases to show the relationship between the specific process and the risk factors of the accident.Python was used to simulate the data of cusp catastrophe of collapse accident,and the mechanism of accident was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively,which verified the validity of the model.The results show that when the two control variables of the system have sudden jump and intersect with the bifurcation set,the system is likely to have a catastrophe and then collapse accident,and the severity of the accident is related to the sudden jump value of the control variables.The release of risk energy in the system leads to the accumulation of risk value,and the occurrence of collapse is the process of continuous accumulation of system risk value.The probability of collapse accident can be reduced by changing the state of control variables.The manual intervention can be carried out in advance to reduce the sudden jump value and prevent the deterioration of the accident.This cusp catastrophe model can explain the mutation mechanism of building construction system.And it can provide a new idea for the prevention and control of collapse accident.

关 键 词：尖点突变模型 坍塌事故 风险-事故突变树 系统安全状态 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]