中国面临的就业挑战:从短期看长期  

Employment Challenges Facing China:Short-term Shock and Long-run Trend

作　　者：蔡昉[1] Cai Fang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院国家高端智库

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2022年第5期9-21,4,共14页International Economic Review

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情对生产和消费活动产生不利影响,对中国劳动力市场造成冲击,从而导致周期性失业现象。与此同时,短期冲击的背后也蕴藏长期的结构性因素。中国人口即将进入负增长时代,将会从供给侧和需求侧对经济增长产生进一步制约。一方面,经济增长动能转向创新驱动,可能加剧就业创造与就业破坏之间的不对称、人力资本供需的不平衡,使结构性、摩擦性因素为主的自然失业率趋于提高;另一方面,就业不充分和质量偏低不利于劳动者报酬的合理提高,也会从需求侧妨碍经济增长潜力的充分发挥。从劳动者群体的异质性和易于分化的特征出发,更有针对性地扶助各类就业群体,把短期失业治理与长期挖掘更充分更高质量就业潜力相结合,应该成为积极就业政策的优先目标。The COVID-19 outbreak has adversely affected production and consumption activities,and has impacted China’s labor market,leading to cyclical unemployment.Meanwhile,behind such short-term shocks,there are also long-term structural factors that have led to the current predicament.China is about to enter an era of negative population growth,which will further dampen economic growth from both the supply side and the demand side.On the one hand,the shift of economic growth drive to innovation may exacerbate the asymmetry between job creation and job destruction and worsen the imbalance between supply and demand of human capital,pushing up the natural unemployment rate,which has been caused mainly by structural and frictional factors;on the other hand,underemployment and low quality of employment are not conducive to the reasonable improvement in labor remuneration,and will,from the demand side,also lead to economic growth potential being unable to be fully brought out.It should be the priority goal of a pro-active employment policy to provide targeted support for various employment groups,and combine the short-term unemployment governance and the long-term exploration of the potential to create more jobs and improve the quality of employment.

关 键 词：就业挑战 人口负增长 自然失业率 失业治理 积极就业政策 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]