中国居民资产负债表估计:1978-2019年  

China’s Household Balance Sheet Estimates(1978-2019)

作　　者：许伟[1] 傅雄广 Xu Wei;Fu Xiongguang

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心宏观部 [2]渤海证券债券销售交易总部

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2022年第5期30-76,5,共48页International Economic Review

摘　　要：2008年国际金融危机后,各方面对居民资产负债表的关注度上升。但目前仍缺乏对中国改革开放以来居民资产负债表的演变,做出口径统一、时间连续的相关研究。本文尽可能广泛地搜集相关文献和统计资料,并在此基础上编制了1978-2019年中国居民部门资产负债表,资产类别涵盖了主要金融资产和实物资产。结果显示,截至2019年,中国居民总资产规模约465万亿元,其中金融资产147万亿元,人均10.5万元;实物资产(仅包括住房和汽车)318万亿元,人均22.7万元。中国居民总负债大约55.3万亿元,人均约4万元。居民部门总资产与可支配收入的比值已与美日等发达经济体相当,但从结构上看,住房等实物资产占比较高,金融资产比重偏低且多元化程度不够。居民部门杠杆率近年显著上升,但仍明显好于欧美等发达经济体国际金融危机爆发之前的状况,偿付能力较强。此外,杠杆率变动呈现逆周期特征。居民部门作为资金净融出部门,充当了经济稳定器角色。More and more attentions have been paid to the issue of household balance sheet in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008.However,there lack consistent studies on China’s household balance sheet since the start of the reform and opening-up.In this article,on the basis of extensive collection of literature and statistics,we estimate China’s household balance sheet during the 1978-2019 period,covering almost all financial assets and major physical assets.As of 2019,the total assets of the Chinese households were valued at about 465 trillion yuan(current price),with financial assets standing at 147 trillion yuan(105,000 yuan per capita)and physical assets,which only include housing and automobiles,amounting to 318 trillion yuan(227,000 yuan per capita).Meanwhile,the total liabilities were about 55.3 trillion yuan(40,000 yuan per capita).The total asset to household disposable income ratio has been roughly at the same level with that of the developed economies,such as the United States,Europe and Japan.But in terms of asset structure,China has a higher proportion of physical assets,such as housing,and a lower ratio and inadequate diversification of financial assets.Moreover,China’s household leverage ratio has risen remarkably in recent years,but it has a strong capability of debt repayment,and,therefore,its situation is significantly better than that of the developed countries before the eruption of the sub-prime mortgage crisis.In addition,the change in household leverage ratio is counter-cyclical.

关 键 词：居民资产负债表 金融资产 实物资产 杠杆率 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] F832