G20缓债实施受阻的原因探析:新旧债权国竞争抑或国际资本市场约束  

Implementation of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative:Traditional and Emerging Creditors Competing or International Capital Market Constraining?

作　　者：王钊 冯凯 Wang Zhao;Feng Kai

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际发展合作研究院/国际经贸研究所 [2]南开大学跨国公司研究中心/经济学院国际经济研究所

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2022年第5期131-154,7,8,共26页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“中国发展融资创新与‘一带一路’相关国家债务可持续性关系研究”(项目编号:19CGJ003);国家社会科学基金重点项目“推动全球经济治理体制变革研究”(项目编号:20AZD103);国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’与南南合作背景下的中非产能合作问题研究”(项目编号:19ZDA063)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情暴发后,二十国集团(G20)提出暂缓73个最贫困国家双边主权债务本息偿还以帮助其应对次生债务困境;但直至2021年12月G20缓债期结束,仍有超过三分之一的潜在受惠国不接受该框架。为什么最贫困国家会拒绝国际减债?传统解释局限于新旧债权国二分范式。本文提出,除新兴债权国崛起之外,20世纪80年代后南北主权债务关系还有两大结构性变化:减债与国际援助相结合、主权债务证券化。最贫困国家在西方减债援助等推动下已开始通过发行主权债券进行发展融资,此时接受G20缓债可能会触发信用评级下降,对后续发债融资成本甚至国际资本市场准入资格带来负面影响。理解国际资本市场对政府间减债的约束效应,对中国在后疫情时代推动新旧债权国协调,甚至是全球债务治理的结构性变革,具有重要意义。The G20 announced the bilateral sovereign debt service suspension plan in early 2020,when the COVID-19 pandemic first erupted,for the 73 poorest countries to ease their debt predicament as a result of the novel coronavirus;it represents the first coordinated debt relief initiative between China and the West.However,more than one third of the poorest debtor countries eligible for joining the debt service suspension initiative have so far declined to accept it.Researchers have generally attributed the refusal to competition between traditional and new creditor countries.This article argues that,apart from the factor of emerging creditor countries,two major structural changes have occurred in the North-South sovereign debt relationship since the 1980s.One is the combination of debt relief and global aid programs;the other is the securitization of sovereign debts.As a result,pushed by the debt relief aid initiatives of the West,many developing countries,even the poorest ones,have issued sovereign bonds to finance for their development.Those debtor countries may suffer from credit rating downgrades,increased borrowing costs,and even lost access to the international capital markets if they accept the G20 debt relief initiative.It is of great significance to understand the constraining effect of the international capital market on intergovernmental debt relief since it is important for China to push coordination between traditional and new creditor countries in the post-epidemic era and promote structural changes in global debt governance.

关 键 词：G20缓债倡议 南北债务关系 全球债务治理 新冠肺炎疫情 

分 类 号：F811.5[经济管理—财政学] F831.5