基于主成分与回归分析的弹药消耗预计方法  

Ammunition Consumption Prediction Method Based on Principal Component Analysis and Regression Analysis

作　　者：史宪铭 李康 刘月河 姜广胜 杜凯 SHI Xianming;LI Kang;LIU Yuehe;JIANG Guangsheng;DU Kai(Shijiazhuang Campus,Army Engineering University,Shijiazhuang 050003,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军工程大学石家庄校区,石家庄050003

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2022年第9期79-84,共6页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：全军军事类研究生资助课题(JY2020B086);军内科研基金资助项目(LJ20202C050369)。

摘　　要：弹药消耗的精确预计离不开弹药消耗影响因素的准确分析,传统分析弹药需求影响因素的方法存在主观性较强的问题,为解决传统方法存在的问题,提出了一种基于主成分与回归分析的弹药消耗预计方法。采用主成分分析法分析了弹药消耗影响因素,提取影响弹药消耗的主成分,以主成分为自变量对弹药消耗进行了多元线性回归和多元非线性回归分析。示例分析表明,非线性回归分析的结果比线性回归分析的结果更好,基于主成分的影响因素分析方法可用于弹药消耗影响因素的分析。Accurate prediction of ammunition consumption is inseparable from an accurate analysis of influencing factors of ammunition consumption.Traditional methods of analyzing the influencing factors of ammunition demand have strong subjectivity.To solve the problems of traditional methods,a method of ammunition consumption prediction based on principal component analysis and regression analysis is proposed.Principal component analysis is used to analyze the influencing factors of ammunition consumption,and the principal components affecting ammunition consumption are extracted.Multivariate linear regression and multivariate nonlinear regression analysis were carried out on ammunition consumption with principal component as independent variable.Example analysis shows that the result of nonlinear regression analysis is better than that of linear regression analysis,and the influencing factor analysis method based on the principal component can be used to analyze the influencing factors of ammunition consumption.

关 键 词：主成分分析 回归分析 弹药 影响因素 消耗预计 装备保障 

分 类 号：TJ4[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程] E917[军事]