人口老龄化视角下认知能力对家庭金融资产选择的影响研究  

A Study on the Influence of Cognitive Ability on Family Financial Assets Choice from the Perspective of Population Aging

作　　者：亢一鸣 王书华[1] 王小腾 Kang Yiming;Wang Shuhua;Wang Xiaoteng

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2022年第8期39-54,共16页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：随着中国人口老龄化程度的加深,老年家庭基数变大,传统家庭养老模式照料能力不足,未富先老、未备先老已成为老年人追求美好生活所面临的难题,提升老年家庭投资收益对获得未来经济生活的支持具有重要的意义。本文基于2013—2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,运用Probit和Tobit模型研究考察了老龄化视角下认知能力对家庭风险金融资产选择的影响。研究发现:(1)家庭投资者认知能力的上升将增加参与金融市场的概率和投资风险金融资产的比例;(2)老龄化将导致认知能力的下降,认知能力对中老年家庭金融资产选择的促进作用会在中年家庭中更加凸显;(3)当存在认知老化时,通过社会互动可以拓宽投资的信息渠道,预期寿命更长家庭中认知能力的促进作用也更强,但老龄化往往也会伴随过度自信的情况,此时家庭会高估认知能力导致过度投资。基于以上研究,应加大医疗保健行业建设,帮助老年家庭正确评估认知能力,鼓励参加社会活动,优化投资决策,为养老增添一份保障。With the deepening of China’s aging population, the number of elderly families has become larger, and the traditional family care model has been lacking. It has become a difficult problem for the elderly to pursue a better life before they are rich or prepared. It is of great significance to enhance the investment income of elderly families to obtain the support of future economic life. Based on the data of China Health And Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2013 to 2018, this paper uses Probit and Tobit models to study the impact of cognitive ability on the choice of family risky financial assets from the perspective of aging. The results show that:(1) The increase of household investors’ cognitive ability will increase the probability of participating in the financial market and the proportion of investing in risky financial assets;(2) Aging will lead to the decline of cognitive ability, the promotion of cognitive ability to the choice of financial assets of middle-aged and elderly families will be more prominent in middle-aged families;(3) When there is cognitive aging, social interaction can broaden the information channel of investment, families with longer life expectancy, the promotion of cognitive ability is also stronger, but the aging is often accompanied by overconfidence. At this time, families will overestimate cognitive ability and lead to over investment. Based on the above research, we should strengthen the construction of medical and health care industry, help elderly families correctly evaluate their cognitive ability, encourage them to participate in social activities, optimize investment decisions, and add a guarantee for the elderly.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 金融资产选择 认知能力 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F832