Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought  

作　　者：Yunyun LIU Zeng-Zhen HU Renguang WU Xing YUAN 

机构地区：[1]CMA Climate Studies Key Laboratory,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China [2]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [3]Climate Prediction Center,NCEP/NOAA,College Park,Maryland 20740,USA [4]School of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China [5]School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2022年第10期1766-1776,共11页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0605004);Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004);National Natural Science Foundations of China(Grant No.42175056);the China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(CXFZ2022J031);the Joint Open Project of KLME&CIC-FEMD,NUIST(Grant No.KLME202102).

摘　　要：In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.

关 键 词：extreme spring drought Southwestern China PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION warming trend internal variability PREDICTABILITY 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]