新型信息基础设施建设对中国经济转型的影响——基于动态递推CGE模型的分析  

The Impact of New Information Infrastructure Construction on China’s Economic Transformation:Based on Recursive-Dynamic CGE Simulation Analysis

作　　者：胡明[1,2] 邵学峰 HU Ming;SHAO Xue-feng(l.Hengqin Finance Research Institute,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学横琴金融研究院,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《经济问题》2022年第10期12-18,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字经济下新业态企业税收管理问题研究”(20BJY224)。

摘　　要：基于国家“十四五”规划中的新基建布局和信息通信行业发展规划,构建动态递推CGE模型模拟分析新型信息基础设施建设对国内生产总值、产业增加值、劳动报酬比重、资源利用效率等经济转型发展指标的影响。研究结果表明:新型信息基础设施建设不仅有利于促进中国经济增长,而且有利于产业结构升级、劳动报酬占比提升和资源利用效率提高。研究结论对发挥新型信息基础设施建设的正向效应、稳定经济增长和促进经济转型具有政策参考价值。Based on the new infrastructure layout and the development plan of information and communication industry in the national 14th five year plan,the paper constructs a Recursive-Dynamic CGE model to analyze the impact of new information infrastructure construction on economic transformation.The model simulates the changes of industrial structure,labor compensation,resource utilization efficiency and other factors of economic transformation under different scenarios.The results show that the construction of new information infrastructure not only has a significant impact on China’s economic growth,but also is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure,enhancing the proportion of labor remuneration and the efficiency of resource utilization.The research conclusion has policy reference value for giving play to the positive effect of new information infrastructure,stabilizing growth and promoting transformation.

关 键 词：新型信息基础设施 经济转型 动态递推CGE模型 政策模拟 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]