基于层次分析法的黄河口入海流路运用方案研究  

Study on the Flow⁃Path Operation Scheme of Yellow River Estuary by Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：陈雄波 王崇浩[3] 陈松伟 刘娟 端木灵子 王彤 CHEN Xiongbo;WANG Chonghao;CHEN Songwei;LIU Juan;DUANMU Lingzi;WANG Tong(Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin(Under Construction),Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003 [2]水利部黄河流域水治理与水安全重点实验室(筹),河南郑州450003 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100048

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第10期56-60,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405500)。

摘　　要：为满足黄河口不同入海流路运用方案效益量化评价需要,设计4个流路运用方案,基于层次分析法构建黄河口入海流路运用方案综合评价指标体系,从行洪输沙能力、生态保障、对经济社会发展影响3个方面选取冲淤量、平滩流量、流路稳定性、外海输沙量等指标对流路运用方案进行评价;为消除各指标值量纲差异的影响并统一各指标值的变化范围,对指标进行归一化处理,采用专家调查法确定指标权重,通过多层次分析结构模型对判断矩阵进行一致性检验;通过计算各方案评价值,选取不同来沙情景下最优的流路运用方案。结果表明:采用现行清水沟流路(现行清8汊、北汊、原河道),以西河口(二)站10000 m^(3)/s流量对应水位达到12 m为改道标准的运用方案最好,可实现黄河口入海流路稳定行河100 a。In order to meet the needs of quantitative evaluation of the benefits of different flow path utilization schemes in the Yellow River estuary into the sea,four flow path utilization schemes were designed,based on the analytic hierarchy process,a comprehensive evaluation system for the application scheme of the Yellow River estuary into the sea was constructed.From the three aspects of flood and sediment trans⁃port capacity,ecological security,and impact on economic and social development,indicators such as scouring and sedimentation volume,beach flow,flow channel stability,and offshore sediment transport volume were selected to evaluate the flow channel application plan.In or⁃der to eliminate the influence of the dimensional difference of each indicator value and unify the variation range of each indicator value,the indicators were normalized.The expert investigation method was used to determine the index weights,and the multi⁃level analysis structure model was used to test the consistency of the judgment matrix.By calculating the evaluation value of each scheme,it selected the optimal flow path operation scheme under different sand arrival scenarios.The results show that it is best to use the current Qingshuigou flow path(the current Qingbacha,Beicha and the original river course),with the water level of 10000 m^(3)/s at Xihekou(Ⅱ)Station reaching 12 m as the best application plan,which can realize the stability of the flow path of the Yellow River into the sea for 100 years.

关 键 词：层次分析法 模型 入海流路 运用方案 黄河口 

分 类 号：TV856[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1