基于组合权重-物元分析模型的水利改革效果评价  

Evaluation of Water Reform Effects Based on Combined Weight⁃Object Meta Analysis Model

作　　者：王美慧 唐德善[1] 尚静 WANG Meihui;TANG Deshan;SHANG Jing(College of Water Resources and Hydropower,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第10期84-88,116,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405805-04)。

摘　　要：为科学评价区域水利改革效果,构建了以评价水利改革效果为目标,以水资源、水环境、水生态、水经济、水管护为准则的水利改革效果评价指标体系,包含万元GDP用水量、污水处理率等18个指标。将水利改革效果评价指标划分为优秀、良好、中等、差4个等级,采用三标度层次分析法得到指标主观权重,采用贡献率法得到指标客观权重,并采用博弈论计算指标组合权重,构建可拓物元分析模型评价山东省2010—2019年水利改革效果。结果表明:山东省水利改革效果评价等级由2010年的中等到2019年的优秀,整体呈改善趋势。In order to scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of the regional water reform,a water reform evaluation index system was built to evaluate the effectiveness of water reform with the objectives of water resources,water environment,water ecology,water economy and water management as the criteria.It evaluated the effect of water reform,including water consumption of 10 thousand Yuan RMB gross domestic product(GDP),sewage treatment rate and other 18 specific indicators.Further,based on the relevant literature and normative documents,the water reform evaluation indicators were classified into four levels of excellent,good,medium and poor.The use of three⁃scale hierarchical analysis to obtain the subjective weights of indicators had the advantages of fast convergence and high calculation accuracy,and also made the calculation of weights more flexible.The contribution rate method was used to obtain objective weights of indicators.Introducing game theory to obtain indicator combination weights and combining subjective and objective factors,the results were more scientific.We also adopted a to⁃pological element analysis model to evaluate the effect of water reform in Shandong Province in the past 10 years,and provided a research i⁃dea for the evaluation of water reform.The results show that the effectiveness of water reform in Shandong Province has benn improved from medium level in 2010 to excellent level in 2019.

关 键 词：组合权重 可拓物元分析 水利改革 山东省 

分 类 号：TV212.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]