城乡居民养老保险个人账户基金投资风险分析与评估  

Individual Account Found Investment Risk Analysis and Evaluation in Urban and Rural Residents’Pension Insurance

作　　者：梁扬扬 LIANG Yangyang(School of Public Management,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学公共管理学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《湖南人文科技学院学报》2022年第5期56-63,共8页Journal of Hunan University of Humanities,Science and Technology

基　　金：湖南省研究生科研创新项目“中国城镇职工非纳费型养老金制度支柱构建研究”(CX20210545)。

摘　　要：运用美国著名经济学家马克维兹(Markowitz)现代投资组合理论,通过分散投资方法计算个人账户基金资产收益率的均值及方差,对城乡居民养老保险个人账户基金投资组合的风险大小进行评估。研究发现,当城乡居民养老保险个人账户基金投资于一年期银行存款、国债、企业债及股票的比例分别为10%、40%、45%和5%时,期望收益率为6.33%,风险为4.47%,此时的投资组合即为风险可控条件下寻求保值增值的最佳方案。基于上述结果,拓宽个人账户基金保值增值渠道、推动资本市场投资、建立相对最低收益率制度、落实再保险制度及制定提取准备金制度是确保城乡居民养老保险个人账户基金保值增值的有效途径。Using the modern portfolio theory of Markowitz,the famous American economist,the mean and variance of the return on the assets of the individual account fund were calculated through the diversification method to assess the risk of the investment portfolio of the individual account fund of urban and rural residents’pension insurance.It was found that when personal account funds of the urban and rural residents’pension insurance were invested in one-year bank deposits,treasury bonds,corporate bonds and stocks at 10%,40%,45%and 5%respectively,the expected return was 6.33%and the risk was 4.47%,which was the best solution to preserve and increase the value of the portfolio under controlled risk conditions.Based on the above results,this paper believes that broadening the channels for preserving and increasing the value of individual account funds,promoting capital market investment,establishing a relative minimum rate of return system,implementing a reinsurance system and formulating a reserve withdrawal system are effective ways to ensure the preservation and increase in value of individual account funds of urban and rural residents’pension insurance.

关 键 词：个人账户 投资风险 评估 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]