冷战前奏:美国对苏联战略认知陷入误区——关于美苏冷战起源的经济因素(讨论之五)  

The Fifth Part of Economic Factors Respecting Origin of Cold War: Whether or not Cold War was Initiated in Spring of 1946?

作　　者：沈志华[1] SHEN Zhi-hua

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学历史学系、社会主义历史与文献研究院,200241

出　　处：《史林》2022年第3期160-184,222,共26页Historical Review

基　　金：华东师范大学“幸福之花”基金先导项目阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：第二次世界大战后期和战后初期,美苏之间矛盾和分歧频发,但双方做事都留有余地。1946年二三月,斯大林的选举演说、凯南给国务院的“长电报”和丘吉尔在美国富尔顿的“铁幕演说”,在苏联与英美之间引发了激烈的对立和宣传战。然而,斯大林演说并非针对美国,而是要解决国内的问题;凯南电报在华盛顿被普遍接受,但其对苏联外交政策的分析存在缺陷,结论过于偏激;丘吉尔演说的背后有白宫的阴影,虽迎合了部分美国人的意愿,也引发了热烈的社会争论。总之,1946年春夏之交美苏紧张关系加剧,美国对苏联战略认知陷入误区,但对抗与妥协并存,且双方都还没有形成确定的、完整的对外政策。因此,事情并非没有转圜的余地。The present author tries to shed new light on Stalin’s election speech,Kennan’s long telegram and Churchill’s iron curtain speech,contending that,although these led to fierce confrontation and propaganda war between the Soviet Union and Anglo-American bloc,Stalin’s speech was actually not directed at the United States but at domestic issues,Kennan’s telegram was not only defective in analyzing SU’s foreign policies but also too paranoid,and Churchill’s lecture that was at the instigation of Washington regime sparked controversy in spite of pandering to Americans. Overall,the general situation on the cusp between spring and summer of 1946 was not irreversible.

关 键 词：斯大林选举演说 凯南长电报 丘吉尔铁幕演说 冷战起源 

分 类 号：K153[历史地理—历史学]