“蓝天保卫战”空气污染治理效应评估  

Assessment of the air pollution control effect of “The Blue Shy Defense War”

作　　者：蔡兴[1] CAI Xing(School of Business,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《中南大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第5期78-91,共14页Journal of Central South University：Social Sciences

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目“预期寿命延长对技术创新的影响机理与政策选择研究”(19A295)。

摘　　要：《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》是中国最重要的大气污染防治政策之一。该政策划定了重点区域和非重点区域,并对重点区域实行更严格的环境管制。以2015至2020年的地级市数据为研究样本,运用双重差分方法研究了重点区域更严格管制措施对空气质量的影响。研究结果显示,更严格环境管制产生了更好的空气质量改善效果。具体而言,相较于非重点区域,重点区域AQI、PM2.5和PM10分别多下降了4.5%、10.08%和6.75%。进一步运用成本-收益分析方法对该行动计划的政策效果进行了评估,结果表明,重点区域更严格环境管制引致的居民医疗支出减少和幸福感提升等方面的收益远大于潜在经济增长损失。政府有关部门一方面应继续将环境管制作为大气污染治理的重要手段,另一方面应完善环境管制政策的效应评估框架,全面评估环境管制的成本与收益,提升我国大气污染治理的科学性和有效性。As one of China’s most crucial policies to prevent and control air pollution, “the Three-year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense War” divides China’s areas into the key and the non-key, and implements stricter environmental control over key areas. By adopting the Difference-in-Differences(DID)method, and by taking the prefecture level cities from 2015 to 2020 as research samples, this paper assesses the policy effectiveness of giving key areas more rigorous regulations. The results show that stricter environmental regulations play a more effective role in the improvement of air quality. Specifically, the AQI,PM2.5 and PM10 in key areas decreased by 4.5%, 10.08% and 6.75% respectively compared with those in non-key areas. And the study, by using cost-benefit analysis, further assesses the rationality of this policy.The research results show that the benefits from the reduction of residents’ medical expenditure and the improvement of their well-being caused by stricter environmental control in key areas are far greater than the potential economic growth losses. Government departments, on the one hand, should continue with environmental regulation as an important means of air pollution control. On the other hand, they should improve the evaluation and analysis framework of environmental control policies, and comprehensively evaluate the costs and benefits of environmental control, so as to improve the scientificity and effectiveness of air pollution control in China.

关 键 词：“蓝天保卫战” 环境管制 空气质量 双重差分方法 成本-收益分析 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]