基于CGE模型的最优碳税水平及碳税政策效应分析  

Analysis of the Optimal Carbon Tax Level and Carbon Tax Policy Effects Based on CGE Model

作　　者：卢晓芸[1] 雷雪 Lu Xiaoyun;Lei Xue(Chongqing Business Management Department of PBC,Chongqing 401147,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行重庆营业管理部,重庆401147

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2022年第9期62-70,共9页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：碳税作为全球主要碳定价机制之一,在应对气候变化、减少温室效应上发挥了重要作用。本文通过建立涵盖碳排放模块的CGE模型,结合我国实际经济增长情况和税收情况,确定了在市场均衡条件下,我国征收碳税的最优税率水平为30元/吨二氧化碳,并设定了低中高及最优税率四种情景,分析了不同程度的碳税税率对我国宏观经济、能源消耗、部门产出及碳排放等方面的影响,发现征收碳税虽然会对经济造成负面冲击但整体可控,且能够有效降低能源消耗和碳排放总量。本文研究结论为我国开征碳税提供了一定决策参考。As one of the major global carbon pricing mechanisms,carbon taxes play an important role in combating climate change and reducing the greenhouse effect.By establishing a CGE model covering the carbon emission module and combining China’s actual economic growth and taxation situation,this paper determines the optimal level of carbon tax in China under market equilibrium conditions to be 30 RMB/ton CO2,and sets four scenarios of low,medium,high and optimal tax rates,and analyzes the impact of different levels of carbon tax rates on China’s macroeconomy,energy consumption,sectoral output and carbon emissions.It is found that a carbon tax will have a negative but manageable overall impact on the economy and can effectively reduce energy consumption and total carbon emissions.The findings of this paper provide a certain reference for decision making on the introduction of carbon tax in China.

关 键 词：最优税率 市场均衡 碳减排效果 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]