要素结构性变动与房地产市场稳定——基于重庆的典型分析  

Structural Changes of Factors and the Stability of the Real Estate Market:a Typical Analysis of Chongqing

作　　者：李娇 向为民 LI Jiao;XIANG Wei-min(School of Management Science and Engineering,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学管理科学与工程学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第5期25-39,共15页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY069)“基于时空异质的房地产市场反脆弱性长效机制研究”;国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY072)“二元均衡视角下房地产过度金融化及其治理研究”;2019年重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(19SKGH079)“基于脆弱性理论的重庆房地产市场稳定性评价及政策优化”;重庆工商大学高层次人才启动项目(1955020)“基于时空异质的我国房地产市场脆弱性研究”。

摘　　要：市场要素的结构性变动对房地产市场的稳定影响日益明显。在明确房地产市场重要支撑因素的基础上,以重庆为典型样本,利用短动态面板、面板随机前沿分析及面板门槛,系统研究要素结构变动对房地产市场稳定的影响。研究发现:当期居民收入对房市稳定是显著作用,房价预期与要素结构变动也会对房市稳定产生重要影响,且存在区域异质性。在发达地区,市场预期发挥的作用更突出,欠发达地区更依赖市场要素结构变化。当预期房价增长率在0.3左右,其对房市稳定的影响最大。从单项指标看,就业人口变化对房地产市场稳定的影响最明显,后依次为住宅用地供应、住房市场存量、金融贷款。结果表明,要保持房地产市场稳定,夯实经济,提升收入,稳定预期是基础;优化要素投入结构,吸引更多就业人群是关键,而仅靠增加土地和住宅供应换取房市稳定,并非长久之策。Structural changes in market factors have an increasingly obvious impact on the stability of the real estate market.On the basis of clarifying the important supporting factors of the real estate market and taking Chongqing as a typical sample,this paper uses a short dynamic panel,panel stochastic frontier analysis and panel threshold to systematically study the impact of factor structure changes on the stability of the real estate market.The study finds that the current residents’income has a significant effect on the stability of the housing market,and changes in housing price expectations and factor structure will also have an important impact on the stability of the housing market,and there is regional heterogeneity.In developed regions,market expectations play a more prominent role,while less developed regions rely more on changes in the structure of market factors.When the expected housing price growth rate is around 0.3,it will have the greatest impact on the stability of the housing market.From the perspective of individual indicators,changes in the employed population have the most obvious impact on the stability of the real estate market,followed by residential land supply,housing market stock,and financial loans.The results show that to maintain the stability of the real estate market,consolidating the economy,increasing income,and stabilizing expectations are the foundation;optimizing the factor input structure and attracting more employment is the key,and simply increasing the supply of land and housing in exchange for housing market stability is not a long-term solution.

关 键 词：房地产市场稳定 要素结构 短动态面板模型 门槛模型 面板随机前沿分析 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]