面向公共安全的气象监测预报预警软件发展综述  

Overview of development of public safety-oriented meteorological monitoring,forecasting and early warning software

作　　者：周勇[1] 杨波 唐伟[1] 李月安 王月冬[2] 李泽椿[2] ZHOU Yong;YANG Bo;TANG Wei;LI Yue'an;WANG Yuedong;LI Zechun(CMA Institute for Development and Programme Design,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;National Meteorological Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局中国气象局气象发展与规划院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第9期76-85,共10页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(41875078);中国工程院咨询研究项目(2020-ZCQ-12)。

摘　　要：为推动气象监测预报预警(MMFW)软件高质量发展,保障国家安全和人民生命财产安全,总结评价国内外MMFW软件。首先,分析MMFW软件的类别,研究气象观测系统、数值预报、气象灾害预报预警、气象灾害影响和风险评估、公共气象服务、气象信息系统这6类软件的现状及其关键核心技术;然后,初步探讨我国MMFW软件在智能观测、智能预报、风险评估和决策服务技术、人工智能技术应用领域的发展趋势;最后,提出思考和建议。结果表明:我国MMFW软件存在着基础软件落后、应用支撑软件薄弱、应用软件技术含量偏低等问题;应补齐开发环境、工具等基础软件和应用支撑软件短板,构筑业务运行和监控软件等应用软件长板,做优MMFW信息产品和技术支持服务,加快无缝隙-全覆盖、自动-智能、精细-数字的MMFW软件关键核心技术研发等。In order to promote the high-quality development of MMFW software,and protect national security and the safety of human life and property,the domestic and foreign MMFW software were summarized and evaluated.Firstly,the categories of MMFW software were analyzed,and the status and key core technologies of six types of software,including meteorological observation system,numerical forecast,forecast and early warning of meteorological disasters,impact and risk assessment of meteorological disasters,public meteorological service and meteorological information system,were studied.Then,the developing trends of MMFW software in the fields of intelligent observation,intelligent forecast,risk assessment and decision-making service technology,and artificial intelligence technology application were preliminarily discussed.Finally,suggestions were put forward.Results show that there are some problems in Chinese MMFW software,such as backward basic software,weak application support software,low technical content of applied software.The short board of the development environment,development tools and other basic software and application support software should be completed.The advantages of the business operation,monitoring software,and other application software should be built.MMFW information products and technical support services should be optimized.Research and development of the key core technologies of"seamless-be full covered,automatic-intelligent,fine-digital"MMFW software should be accelerated.

关 键 词：公共安全 气象监测预报预警(MMFW) 软件 风险评估 灾害防治 

分 类 号：X924.3[环境科学与工程—安全科学]