东北三省黑土区耕地数量时空格局变化及其驱动机制研究  

Spatial-temporal Pattern Change of Cultivated Land Quantity and Its Driving Mechanism in Black Soil Area of Northeast China

作　　者：刘洪彬[1] 高嘉鞠 吴梦瑶 刘新华 曾妍 董秀茹[1] LIU Hong-bin;GAO Jia-ju;WU Meng-yao;LIU Xin-hua;ZENG Yan;DONG Xiu-ru(College of Land and Environment,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110161,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学土地与环境学院,沈阳110161

出　　处：《沈阳农业大学学报》2022年第4期444-453,共10页Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72074153)。

摘　　要：分析东北三省黑土区耕地数量时空格局变化及其驱动因素,以期为黑土区耕地资源合理规划与利用以及粮食安全保障提供依据和决策支持。基于2014~2018年耕地面积数据和社会经济数据,借助耕地净变化率、耕地变化动态度、空间自相关分析和空间计量模型,探究了东北三省黑土区耕地数量的时空格局变化特征及其驱动机制。结果表明:在时间变化方面,东北三省黑土区虽部分县区耕地面积增加,但耕地总面积总体呈下降趋势,区域耕地净变化率有所增加,整体变化幅度为0.16%。5年间耕地变化的速度放缓,区域耕地资源稳定性增强;在空间变化方面,研究区域耕地面积变化的热点区域有所缩小,主要集中在辽宁省及吉林省东南部经济工业相对发达地区。而冷点区域则主要集中在黑龙江省的西北部和东南部等重要农业生产区域且有所扩张;在影响因素方面,农业结构比值、农业机械动力、第一产业占比等是促使耕地数量增加的主要原因,而地区生产总值、第二产业占比、固定资产投资是导致耕地数量减少的主要因素。因此,未来在减轻东北三省黑土区耕地保护的压力时,应考虑转变以牺牲粮食安全为代价的经济增长方式,加快产业结构优化,健全相关法律政策,促进耕地数量的保护。The temporal and spatial pattern changes of cultivated land in black soil areas in the three northeastern provinces and its driving factors were analyzed, to provide basis and decision support for rational planning and utilization of cultivated land resources and food security in black soil areas. Based on the cultivated land utilization data and socio-economic data from 2014 to 2018, using the net change rate of cultivated land, dynamic degree of cultivated land change, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric model, the temporal and spatial pattern change characteristics of cultivated land in the black soil area of the three northeastern provinces and the driving mechanism were explored. The results show that in terms of time change, although the cultivated land area of some counties in the black soil area of the three north eastern provinces increased, the total cultivated land area showed a downward trend, and the net change rate of regional cultivated land increased, with an overall change of 0.16%. In the past five years, the speed of cultivated land change slowed down and the stability of regional cultivated land resources increased. In terms of spatial change, the hot areas for study of cultivated land area change reduced, and mainly in Liaoning Province and the relatively developed areas of economy and industry in the southeast of Jilin Province. The cold spot area is mainly in important agricultural production areas such as the northwest and southeast of Heilongjiang Province, and the area has expanded. In terms of influencing factors, the ratio of agricultural structure, the power of agricultural machinery and the proportion of primary industry play a major role in promoting the increase of the area of cultivated land, while the regional GDP, the proportion of secondary industry and fixed asset investment are the main factors for the decrease of the area of cultivated land in turn. Therefore, in the future, when reducing the pressure on cultivated land protection in the black soil area

关 键 词：耕地变化 时空格局 驱动机制 空间计量模型 东北三省黑土区 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]