基于三次指数平滑法的乌鲁木齐市声环境质量污染预测及应用  

Prediction and Application of Acoustic Environmental Quality Pollution in Urumqi City Based on Exponential Smoothing

作　　者：韩芹芹 李凡 王涛 张守斌[3] HAN Qin-qin;LI Fan;WANG Tao;ZHANG Shou-bin(Urumqi Environmental Monitoring Center Station,Urumqi Xinjiang 830011,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]乌鲁木齐市环境监测中心站,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区自然资源厅机关服务中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]中国环境监测总站,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学导刊》2022年第5期84-89,共6页Environmental Science Survey

摘　　要：以2011—2021年乌鲁木齐市区域声环境和道路交通声环境常规监测数据作为研究对象,对全市声环境总体水平进行评价并建立静态及动态三次指数平滑模型,模型预测值与乌鲁木齐市的声环境污染状况基本一致,预测效果比较可靠,因此该模型可用于首府城市声环境质量短期及中期预测,并用该模型对未来10年的声环境污染水平进行预测。结果显示:2022—2031年,乌鲁木齐市区域声环境质量水平总体保持在54.5dB(A)以内,道路交通声环境质量水平总体保持在65.0dB(A)以内,声环境质量将继续处于一个相对平稳的阶段,预测结果将为上级管理部门今后开展噪声污染防治工作提供依据。This paper took the conventional monitoring data of the regional acoustic environment and road traffic acoustic environment in Urumqi from 2011 to 2021 as the research object,analyzed the current situation and established an exponential smoothing model.The predicted value of the model was basically consistent with the acoustic environment pollution in Urumqi City.It was relatively reliable,so the model could be used for shortterm and medium-term forecasting of the acoustic environment quality of capital cities,and the model was used to predict the level of acoustic environment pollution in the next 10 years.The overall sound environment quality level will be within 54.5 dB(A),and the road traffic will remain within 65.0 dB(A),and the sound environment quality will continue to be in a relatively stable stage.The prediction results would be a useful reference for the management division.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 区域声环境 道路交通声环境 污染预测 乌鲁木齐市 

分 类 号：X827[环境科学与工程—环境工程]