赤峰地区谷子气候适宜度评价模型研究  

Study on Climatic Suitability Evaluation Model of Millet in Chifeng District

作　　者：王志春[1] 陈素华[2] 王松虎 吴亚娟 WANG Zhichun;CHEN Suhua;WANG Songhu;WU Yajuan(Chifeng Meteorological Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Chifeng,024000;Ecological and Agro-meteorological Center of Inner Mongolia,Hohhot 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区赤峰市气象局,内蒙古赤峰024000 [2]内蒙古生态与农业气象中心,呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《东北农业科学》2022年第4期122-126,共5页Journal of Northeast Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41665007)。

摘　　要：气候适宜度可以动态表征气候条件对作物生长发育的影响程度。利用赤峰地区近30 a气象资料和农业气象观测资料,基于模糊数学方法,根据谷子各发育时段对温度、水分的需求,构建了赤峰地区谷子旬及全生育期气候适宜度评价模型。结果表明:赤峰地区谷子在营养生长阶段气候适宜度普遍较高;生殖生长阶段,由于对气候条件要求较高,气候适宜度有所降低。其中,在谷子开花授粉期,对温度要求较为严苛,此时段气候适宜度偏低。近30 a赤峰地区谷子气候适宜度均在0.5以上,70%年份达到了0.6以上,说明气候条件非常适合谷子生长。检验结果表明,赤峰地区谷子气候适宜度与气象产量在0.01水平上呈显著正相关,模型评估能力达到了较高水平。本研究建立的旬尺度气候适宜度模型能够客观反映赤峰地区谷子的气候适宜水平及其动态变化。Climatic suitability can dynamically characterize the influence of climatic conditions on crops growth and development.Using the meteorological data and agrometeorological data in Chifeng district in the last 30 years,based on the fuzzy mathematics theory,the climatic suitability evaluation model in Chifeng district was established according to the demand of temperature and precipitation in each millet development period.The results showed that the climatic suitability of millet in the vegetative growth stage was generally higher in Chifeng district and the climatic suitability in the reproductive growth stage was reduced due to the higher demand of climatic conditions.The temperature demand was relatively strict in the flowering and pollination stage of millet,so the climatic suitabil⁃ity of this stage was slightly lower.In the last 30 years,the climatic suitability of millet in Chifeng district was above 0.5 and above 0.6 in 70%of the years,the result indicating that the climatic conditions were very suitable for the growth of millet.The results of model checking showed that the climatic suitability of millet in Chifeng district was positively correlated with the meteorological yield at 0.01 significant level,the assessment ability of the model reached a high level.The climatic suitability model of 10 days scale which was built in this study can objectively re⁃flect the climate suitable level and dynamic change of millet in Chifeng district.

关 键 词：赤峰地区 谷子 气候适宜度 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S515[农业科学—作物学]