基于长波理论对世界百年未有之大变局的政治经济学解读  

Political Economic Interpretation of the Profound Changes Unseen in a Century from the Perspective of Long-wave Theory

作　　者：孙小雨 SUN Xiaoyu(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100836,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《上海大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第5期37-50,共14页Journal of Shanghai University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(20CJL002);中国社会科学院上海研究院项目(2021jb039)。

摘　　要：学界普遍认为当今世界面临百年未有之大变局是指国际经济格局正在发生东升西降的变化。长波理论视角强调国际经济格局的这一趋势性变化受制于全球资本积累基本矛盾的演变。首先,20世纪70年代尤其是2008年以来,发达国家陷入了利润率下降趋势和技术活力衰竭叠加的长波下行期。为了应对资本积累的基本矛盾,新自由主义体制分别通过金融化和空间修复来逆转利润率下降趋势,这推动了东升西降格局的逐渐显现。其次,中国积累体制在融入国际分工体系后迅速崛起,短期内缓解了发达国家的长波下行期,但长期将导致资本主义世界经济价值分配格局的变化。面对百年变局充满不确定性的演变轨迹,推动利润实现与重大产品创新从而促进我国利润率的回升至关重要。Academic circles have reached a consensus that the profound changes unseen in a century refer to the rise of developing countries and the relative decline of developed countries in the international economic landscape. It should be noted from the perspective of long-wave theory that the changing trend of international economic landscape is confined to the evolution of the basic contradiction of global capital accumulation. First of all, since the 1970s, especially since 2008, developed countries have fallen into a longwave downward period caused by falling profit rate and exhausting technological vitality. In response to the basic contradiction of capital accumulation, the neo-liberal regime has attempted to reverse the trend of falling profit rate through financialization and spatial fix, which has resulted in the gradual rise of developing countries and the relative decline of developed countries. Secondly, China has risen rapidly since its accumulation regime integrated into the international division of labor system, which has slowed down the relative decline of developed countries temporarily, but in the long run the capitalist world economy cannot escape the changes in the pattern of value distribution. Given the uncertainties in the evolution of the profound changes unseen in a century, it is critical to promote profit realization and initiate innovation in major products so as to improve profit rate in China.

关 键 词：百年变局 长波 利润率 资本积累 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]