基于证据权法的昆明五华区地质灾害易发性评价  

Susceptibility assessment of geological hazards in Wuhua District of Kuming, China using the weight evidence method

作　　者：白光顺[1,2] 杨雪梅 朱杰勇 张世涛[1,2] 祝传兵 康晓波[2,4] 孙滨 周琰嵩 BAI Guangshun;YANG Xuemei;ZHU Jieyong;ZHANG Shitao;ZHU Chuanbing;KANG Xiaobo;SUN Bin;ZHOU Yansong(Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650093,China;Key Laboratory of Geohazard Forecast and Geoecological Restoration in Plateau Mountainous Area,MNR,Kunming,Yunnan 650093,China;Yunnan Gaozheng Dixin Technology Co.Ltd.,Kunming,Yunnan 650041,China;Yunnan Geological Environment Monitoring Institute,Kunming,Yunnan 650216,China;Kunming Branch of Yunnan Nanfang Geological Survey Engineering Corporation,Kunming,Yunnan 650051,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093 [2]自然资源部高原山地地质灾害预报预警与生态保护修复重点实验室,云南昆明650093 [3]云南高正地信科技有限公司,云南昆明650041 [4]云南省地质环境监测院,云南昆明650216 [5]云南南方地勘工程总公司昆明分公司,云南昆明650051

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2022年第5期128-138,共11页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

摘　　要：地质灾害易发性评价是国土空间规划和区域地质灾害防灾减灾的重要依据。为探索适合云南高原低山丘陵区地质灾害易发性评价方法,论文选择云南省昆明市五华区为典型研究区,选择工程地质岩组、距断裂构造线距离、高程、坡度、坡向、坡面曲率、距公路线距离和土地利用类型等8个因素,应用基于贝叶斯理论的证据权法进行地质灾害易发性评价,通过对各因素各分级(分类)综合证据权重的近似学生化检验(Student-T)优化了各因素的分级(分类)方案。采用文中所构建模型评价得出的易发性分区结果表明,89.9%和9.1%的地灾点落入高和中易发区,对比分析显示建模结果与地质灾害发育情况吻合度高,较好地揭示了研究区地质灾害易发性特征,可为昆明市五华区及云南高原其它低山丘陵区地质灾害防治规划提供参考。Geological hazard susceptibility assessment is an important basis for territorial space planning and geological hazard prevention and mitigation. In order to explore the evaluation method suitable for the geological hazard susceptibility of low hills and gullies in Yunnan plateau, Wuhua District of Kunming, Yunnan Province, China was selected as a typical study area. Eight factors including the engineering geology groups, distance from faults, elevation, slope, direction, curvature, distance from roads and land use covers were selected, and the weight evidence method based on Bayesian theory was applied to evaluate the susceptibility of geological hazards. After performing the Student-T test of the comprehensive evidence weight of each factor,the classification scheme of factors were optimized. The results of vulnerability zoning based on the evaluation of the model established in this paper showed that 89.9% and 9.1% of the geological hazard points fall into high and medium susceptibility areas. The comparative analysis showed that the modeling results are highly consistent with the geological hazards distribution,which better reveals the characteristics of geological hazards susceptibility in the study area. It can provide reference for the planning of geological hazards prevention in Wuhua District and other low hills and gullies areas of Yunnan plateau.

关 键 词：地质灾害 易发性评价 高原低山丘陵区 证据权法 昆明市五华区 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] P694[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]