考虑心理变量的老年人错峰出行选择行为分析  

Analysis on the Choice Behavior of the Elderly Off-Peak Travel Considering Psychological Factors

作　　者：张兵[1] 余凤君 刘建荣[2] 周珣 汪明杰 Zhang Bing;Yu Fengjun;Liu Jianrong;Zhou Xun;Wang Mingjie(School of Transportation Engineering,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Civil Engineering&Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;Comprehensive Transportation Development Research Center of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330036,China;Jiangxi Transportation Institute Co.,Ltd.Nanchang 330200,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学交通运输工程学院,江西南昌330013 [2]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510640 [3]江西省综合交通运输发展研究中心,江西南昌330036 [4]江西省交通运输科学研究院有限公司,江西南昌330200

出　　处：《华东交通大学学报》2022年第5期86-96,共11页Journal of East China Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52162042,71961006);江西省教育厅一般课题(GJJ190331)。

摘　　要：老年群体因身体素质以及出行时间约束强度有别于一般通勤者,其出行方式通常为公交或步行。利用验证性因素分析结合二元Logit模型,研究早高峰暂停公交优惠政策前后,老年人个人统计学属性以及老年群体对日常出行态度、在高峰时段乘坐公交的感受、对错峰出行的支持意愿等心理因素对老年人出行行为的影响,并利用潜在分类模型对老年群体进行分类分析。结果表明,在短距离出行中,老年人的各种心理因素均对老年人出行选择有显著影响;在高峰时段公交出行中,老年群体的选择会受到公交优惠政策变化和群体对于错峰出行支持度的影响;通过潜分类模型计算发现老年群体中出行目的性强,对于高峰公交出行、错峰出行感受较为敏感的老年群体所占比例较低。Due to physical fitness and travel time different from commuters, the elderly usually travel by bus or on foot. Using the confirmatory factor analysis and binary Logit model, studying the influences of the elderly′s personal statistical attributes and psychological factors on the travel behavior, such as their attitude towards daily travel, their feelings about taking buses at peak times, and their travel intention to avoid rush hours before and after the preferential policy of suspending public transport at morning peak hours, the latent classification model was used to classify and analyze the elderly groups. The results show that all kinds of psychological factors have significant influence on elderly′s short-distance trips. The bus preferential policy and the group′s support for off-peak travel have a significant impact on the elderly′s choice. The latent classification model shows that the survey objects have necessary travel purpose, and the proportion of elderly groups who are sensitive to bus travel and off-peak travel is low.

关 键 词：城市交通 出行选择行为 LOGIT模型 老年人 心理变量 潜分类模型 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]