川藏铁路波密-林芝段边坡稳定性与降雨阈值关系研究  

Study of the relationship between slope stability and rainfall threshold in Bomi-Nyingchi section of Sichuan-Tibet Railway

作　　者：付润艺 叶唐进 次旺 陶伟 卓玛[4] FU Runyi;YE Tangjin;Ciwang;TAO Wei;Zhuoma(College of Engineering,Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,Tibet,China;Sichuan College of Architectural Technology,Deyang 618000,Sichuan,China;Facullty Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,Sichuan,China;Tibet Meteorological Center,Lhasa 850000,Tibet,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学工学院,西藏拉萨850000 [2]四川建筑职业技术学院,四川德阳618000 [3]大连理工大学建设工程学部,辽宁大连116024 [4]西藏自治区气候中心,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《矿产与地质》2022年第3期668-674,共7页Mineral Resources and Geology

基　　金：大学生创新性实验训练计划项目(2020XCX011);国家自然科学基金项目(No.41662020)共同资助。

摘　　要：为研究川藏铁路林芝—波密段边坡稳定性与降雨阈值关系,于野外采集了该路段易滑边坡40组数据,并结合气象站所收集的降雨数据,利用Geo-Studio、Janbu法计算了不同降雨条件下边坡的稳定性,而后构建Logistic多元回归模型求解边坡失稳时雨强、雨量以及降雨时长与沿线边坡的阈值关系。结果表明:将Janbu法和Geo-Studio结合,相互验证了双方的计算结果的合理性;得到了边坡失稳时边坡与不同雨强、雨量及降雨时长间的回归关系;对模型的检验准确度达到了88.89%,模型基本满足工程应用的需要。In order to study the relationship between slope stability and rainfall threshold in Nyingchi-Bomi section of Sichuan-Tibet Railway,40 sets of data are collected in the field.With the combination of the rainfall data collected by meteorological stations,the slope stability under different rainfall conditions is calculated by Geo-Studio and Janbu methods.Then,the Logistic multiple regression model is constructed to solve the threshold relationship between rainfall intensity,rainfall amount and rainfall duration when slope instability occurs.The result shows that the combination of Janbu method and Geo-Studio verifies the rationality of the calculation results of the two sides.The regression relationship between the slope and different rainfall intensities,rainfall amount and rainfall duration is obtained when the slope is unstable.The test accuracy of the model reaches 88.89%,and the model basically meets the need of engineering application.

关 键 词：川藏铁路 边坡稳定性 降雨阈值 数值模拟 LOGISTIC回归 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]