基于空间统计学的贵州省甲型肝炎时空分布模式分析  

Spatiotemporal distribution pattern of viral hepatitis A in Guizhou based on spatial statistics

作　　者：陈太好 汪俊华[1] 张江萍[1,2] 叶新贵 石柱[1] 赵鹏 冯军[3] Chen Taihao;Wang Junhua;Zhang Jiangping;Ye Xingui;Shi Zhu;Zhao Peng;Feng Jun(School of Public Health,Key Laboralory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control,Ministry of Education,Guizhou Medical University,Guiyang 550025,Guizhou,China;Yunyan District Health Bureau,Guiyang 550001,Guizhou,China;Guizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Institute of Immunization Planning,Guiyang 550004,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州医科大学公共卫生与健康学院环境污染与疾病监控教育部重点实验室,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵阳市云岩区卫生健康局,贵州贵阳550001 [3]贵州省疾病预防控制中心免疫规划所,贵州贵阳550004

出　　处：《疾病监测》2022年第8期1022-1026,共5页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：贵州省科技计划(No.黔科合支撑[2020]4Y168号);贵州省卫生健康委科学技术基金(No.gzwkj2022-1-213)。

摘　　要：目的分析贵州省甲型肝炎(甲肝)时空分布模式,为贵州省制定有针对性的甲肝防控策略提供参考依据。方法从传染病报告信息管理系统收集2009—2018年贵州省各县甲肝病例报告数据,利用空间自相关、时空扫描统计量等空间统计学方法分析甲肝的时空分布模式。结果2009—2018年贵州省累计报告甲肝病例10471例,年平均报告发病率为2.84/10万,报告发病率呈现下降趋势(趋势χ2=8280.97,P<0.001);2009—2018年贵州省甲肝发病整体存在空间聚集性,全局Moran’s I值介于0.055~0.310,除2011年,其余年份甲肝发病有空间自相关(P<0.05),共探测到甲肝高–高聚集区44个,主要集中在黔中地区,低–低聚集区54个,主要集中黔东南地区;时空扫描结果显示,2009—2018年贵州省甲肝发病存在6个时空聚集区,每个聚集区差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05),这些聚集区大部分位于贵阳市、黔南州、黔东南州、遵义市、铜仁市和毕节市的部分区(县)。结论2009—2018年贵州省甲肝发病呈现显著的下降趋势,全省整体存在时空聚集性,聚集区主要集中在黔南州和黔东南州的大部分区(县),提示研究区域应重点加强聚集区域的防控。Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of viral hepatitis A in Guizhou province, and provide reference for the development of specific prevention and control strategies of hepatitis A in Guizhou. Methods The report data of hepatitis A cases in each county of Guizhou from 2009 to 2018 were collected from the infectious disease report information management system, and the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of hepatitis A was analyzed by spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal scanning statistics. Results From 2009 to 2018, a total of 10 471 cases of hepatitis A were reported in Guizhou, with an average annual incidence of 2.84/100 000, showing a downward trend(trend χ2 =8 280.97,P<0.001). From 2009 to 2018, the overall incidence of hepatitis A in Guizhou showed spatial clustering, Global Moran’s I values ranged from 0.055 to 0.310, There was a spatial autocorrelation in the incidence of hepatitis A in all years except 2011(P<0.05), A total of 44 high-high clustering areas of hepatitis A were detected, mainly in central Guizhou, and 54 low-low clustering areas, mainly in southeast Guizhou, the spatiotemporal scanning results showed that there were 6 spatiotemporal clustering areas of hepatitis A in Guizhou from 2009 to 2018, and the differences of each clustering were significant(P<0.05).Most of these clustering areas were in Guiyang, Qiannan, Qiandongnan, Zunyi, Tongren and some counties of Bijie.Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis A in Guizhou showed a significant downward trend from 2009 to 2018, and there was a spatiotemporal clustering in the whole province, and the clustering areas were mainly in Qiannan prefecture and most districts and counties in Qiandongnan prefecture, suggesting that the research should be focused on strengthening the hepatitis A prevention and control in the clustering areas.

关 键 词：甲型肝炎 空间自相关 时空扫描 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R181.3R512.61