两种分布曲线快速选型法在水文极值分析中的应用  

Two Rapid Selection Methods of Theoretical Distribution Applied in Hydrological Extreme Analysis

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作  者:任赵飞 王科华[1] 张军[1] 李伟仪[1] Ren Zhaofei;Wang Kehua;Zhang Jun;Li Weiyi(CCCC-FHDI Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou Guangdong 510290,China)

机构地区:[1]中交第四航务工程勘察设计院有限公司,广东广州510290

出  处:《港工技术》2022年第5期1-5,共5页Port Engineering Technology

摘  要:本文结合菲律宾马尼拉湾某项目,采用两种理论分布快速选型方法,即偏度系数Cs与峰度系数Ck相对关系快速选型方法和K-S检验/A-D检验快速选型方法,进行理论分布选型的定量分析和极值风速拟合分析。两种方法优选推荐的理论分布函数基本一致,不同理论分布对同一组样本的拟合度存在一定差异,实际应用中建议双向验证,从而选出最适合样本的理论分布。采用不同推荐理论分布计算得到极值基本一致,结合国内外规范对极值风速理论分布的介绍,建议理论分布的选择,应以拟合最佳为原则进行选配,同时要确定外推值的置信区间。所得成果可为类似水文设计参数分析提供参考。Based on a project in Manila Bay,Philippines,two rapid selection methods of theoretical distribution are adopted,namely,the methods on the relation of skewness coefficient Cs and kurtosis coefficient Ck as well as K-S/A-D test,which support quantitative analysis of theoretical distribution selection and fitting analysis of extreme wind velocity.the theoretical distribution functions produced by using the above two methods are basically consistent,but certain differences exist in the fitting of different theoretical distributions to the same group of samples.Two-way verification is proposed in the application in order to find the optimum theoretical distribution for the selected sample.The extreme values calculated by using different theoretical distributions are basically the same.In combination with the introduction to the theoretical distribution of extreme wind velocity specified in China domestic and international standards,it is recommended that the theoretical distribution shall be selected by following the principle of best fitting,in addition,the confidence interval of extrapolated value shall be determined at the same time.The results can provide a reference for the analysis of similar hydrological design parameters.

关 键 词:频率分布函数 偏度系数Cs 峰度系数Ck 年极值法 阈值法 置信区间 K-S检验 A-D检验 

分 类 号:TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]

 

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