华北汛期降水长期变化规律研究新进展  

New research progress on long-term variation of precipitation in flood season in North China

作　　者：刘海文 袁帅 杨朝虹 武凯军 朱玉祥[2] 林一骅 LIU Haiwen;YUAN Shuai;YANG Zhaohong;WU Kaijun;ZHU Yuxiang;LIN Yihua(Department of Aviation Meteorology,College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院航空气象系,天津300300 [2]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [4]中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院,北京100049

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2022年第5期700-712,共13页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金-中国民用航空局联合研究基金重点项目(U2033207);民航局2020年民航安全能力建设资金资助项目(20600822)。

摘　　要：华北汛期降水的年代际减少,一直是气候学领域关心的重要课题之一。本文扼要回顾了华北汛期旱涝研究的最新代表性成果,主要包括华北汛期起讫的客观识别、华北汛期降水多时间尺度的变化特征、华北汛期降水变化与大气遥相关型的关系,以及华北汛期降水量增多趋势的停滞等。在此基础之上,归纳和总结了该领域需要继续深入研究的问题,如:华北汛期起讫时间的统一性;在华北汛期降水年代际变少的归因分析中,其年际振荡成分衰减的物理原因;华北汛期降水年代际变多趋势停滞的原因;华北汛期降水何时恢复增多等科学问题。The interdecadal reduction of precipitation in flood season in North China has always been one of the important topics in the field of climatology.This paper briefly reviews the latest representative results of the research on drought and flood in flood season in North China,mainly including the objective identification of the beginning and end of flood season in North China,the multi-time-scale variation characteristics of precipitation in flood season in North China,the relationship between precipitation changes in flood season in North China and atmospheric teleconnection patterns,and the stagnation of increasing trend of precipitation in flood season in North China.On this basis,this paper summarizes issues that need to be further studied in this field,such as the unity of initial and final dates of flood season in North China,the physical reason of the attenuation of the interannual oscillation components in the attribution analysis of interdecadal decrease of precipitation in flood season in North China,the reason for the stagnation of interdecadal variation trend of precipitation in flood season in North China,and the time of precipitation recovery and increase in flood season in North China.

关 键 词：汛期降水 华北 长期变化 研究进展 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]