台风集合预报研究进展  

Review on the research progress of typhoon ensemble forecast

作　　者：张璟 李泓[1,3] 段晚锁 张峰[2] ZHANG Jing;LI Hong;DUAN Wansuo;ZHANG Feng(Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclones,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [2]复旦大学大气与海洋科学系/大气科学研究院,上海200433 [3]中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室,上海200030 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2022年第5期713-727,共15页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：上海台风研究基金(TFJJ202119);上海市优秀学术/技术带头人计划(21XD1404500);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1506400);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41575107);上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划(19YF1458700)。

摘　　要：台风数值预报是防台减灾的关键,而集合预报是体现和减少数值预报不确定性的常用方法。本文对近年来台风集合预报方法的研究进展进行了梳理和总结,涉及初值集合扰动、模式扰动技术以及基于统计的台风集合预报后处理技术。对全球几个主要集合预报系统的发展及我国的区域台风集合预报系统做了回顾。最后,在回顾的基础上,讨论和提出了关于台风集合预报仍存在的问题及未来可能的研究方向。Typhoon activities and the relevant severe weather lead to disastrous loss of life and property in coastal cities of China.Numerical prediction of typhoons is the key to typhoon disaster mitigation and prevention.Ensemble prediction is a feasible method to quantify and reduce the uncertainty of numerical weather forecasts.This paper summarizes the research progress of typhoon ensemble forecasting in recent years,including the initial ensemble perturbation and the model perturbation schemes and statistical ensemble forecast post-processing techniques.Next,the developments of the main global and regional ensemble forecast systems worldwide for typhoons,including the advancements in China,are reviewed.Finally,based on the review,the remaining problems and possible research directions for typhoon ensemble forecasting are proposed and discussed.

关 键 词：台风集合预报 初值扰动 模式扰动 集合预报后处理技术 综述 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]