滩海输气管道非均匀沉降应力智能预测研究  

Intelligent Prediction of Uneven Settlement Stress of Gas Pipelines in Beach Area

作　　者：赖乐年 林涛 郝达 马小明[3] LAI Lenian;LIN Tao;HAO Da;MA Xiaoming(Guangdong Natural Gas Co.,Ltd.,CNOOC;Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC;South China University of Technology)

机构地区：[1]中海广东天然气有限责任公司 [2]中国石油华北油田公司 [3]华南理工大学

出　　处：《油气田地面工程》2022年第9期83-90,共8页Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering

基　　金：中海广东天然气有限责任公司科研课题(GDNG-KEJI-2020-02)。

摘　　要：沿海滩涂地区极易发生非均匀沉降,由此可能导致埋地输气管道发生受力变形,甚至拉裂等严重后果,如何确定非均匀沉降对管道的影响严重程度、剔除干扰因素,进行智能预测、预警是行业内重点关注的难题。为此,通过对管道进行长期应力监测试验,对监测数据进行分析;使用Matlab软件建立相关影响因素的多元线性回归方程及应力预测模型,模型精度在3.6%内;分析管道参数及土体参数对管道应力、应变的影响程度;通过有限元分析法验证预测模型准确性,两者误差在5%内;使用C++配合Qtdesinger软件进行风险管控智能预测平台开发。通过上述方法,为管道沉降治理工作提供智能预测和预判功能,使治理工作更具计划性和经济性,并提出了管道防沉降风险管控措施,可为同地质条件输气管道的安全管理工作提供借鉴。Coastal beach areas are very prone to non-uniform settlement,which may result in serious consequences such as stress deformation and even tension cracking of buried gas pipelines.How to determine the severity of non-uniform settlement of pipelines,eliminate interference factors,carry out intelligent prediction and warning are the key issues in the gas industry.Through long-term stress monitoring on the pipeline,and analysis of monitoring data with multiple linear regression equation of relevant influencing factors by MATLAB software,together with the establishment of the stress prediction model,the model accuracy is within 3.6%.The influence degree of pipeline parameters and soil parameters on pipeline stress and strain is analyzed.The accuracy of the prediction model is verified by finite element analysis,and the error between the two is within 5%.C++ and Qtdesinger software are used to develop the risk control intelligent prediction platform.Through the above-mentioned methods,intelligent forecasting and prediction function for pipeline settlement treatment work is provided,the management work is made more planned and economic,and the risk control measures for pipeline settlement prevention are put forward,which provide a reference for the safety management of gas pipelines under the same geological conditions.

关 键 词：输气管道 非均匀沉降 有限元分析 应力预测模型 风险管控 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]