基于面板门槛回归模型的地方政府债务对经济增长影响研究  

The Impact of Local Government Debt on Economic Growth Based on Panel Threshold Regression Model

作　　者：张艳 陆恩国 ZHANG Yan;LU En-guo(Tongling University,Tongling Anhui 244061,China;Tongling Xinhua Bookstore Co.,Ltd,Tongling Anhui 244061,China)

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院金融学院,安徽铜陵244061 [2]铜陵新华书店有限公司,安徽铜陵244061

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2022年第4期20-24,共5页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“深度融入长三角一体化战略背景下安徽省政府债券的溢出效应与优化对策”(AHSKQ2020D77)。

摘　　要：近些年来,地方政府债务增长过快,其如何影响经济增长已成为地方政府需要攻克的重大难题。文章以2004-2016年全国280个地级市数据为例,使用面板门槛回归模型进行实证检验。研究表明:当地方政府负债率较低(lgdr≤0.271,7)时,其对经济增长的影响显著为正;当地方政府负债率较高(lgdr≥0.271,7)时,其对经济增长的影响虽然显著为正,但回归系数明显降低。这表明当地方政府负债率超过单重门槛值后,已经无法有效拉动经济增长。基于研究结论,文章提出了规范政府举债的对策建议。In recent years local government debt has increased too fast.How it affects economic growth has become a major problem that local governments need to overcome.This paper uses Hansen’s panel threshold regression model for empirical test taking the data of 280 prefecture level cities in China from 2004 to 2016 as an example.The results show that:when the local government debt ratio is low(lgdr≤0.271,7),the impact on economic growth is significantly positive;when the local government debt ratio is high(lgdr≥0.271,7),the impact on economic growth is still significantly positive,but the regression coefficient is significantly lower.It can be seen that when the local government debt ratio exceeds the single threshold,the pulling effect of local government debt on economic growth is significantly weakened.This paper verifies the nonlinear inverted U-shaped relationship between local government debt and economic growth,and puts forward some suggestions on regulating government debt.

关 键 词：地方政府负债 经济增长 门槛回归 实证检验 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]