未来气候变化情景下海南岛绿橙种植气候适宜性分析  

Climate Suitability Analysis of Green Orange Cultivation in Hainan Island under Future Climate Change Scenarios

作　　者：陈彦希 娄运生[1,3] 任丽轩[4,5,6] 苏磊 汤丽玲[7] 杨建洲[7] CHEN Yan-xi;LOU Yun-sheng;REN Li-xuan;SU Lei;TANG Li-ling;YANG Jian-zhou(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Hainan Meteorological Detection Center,Haikou 570203;Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology/School of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;School of Resources and Environmental Science,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095;Key Laboratory of Plant Nutrition and Fertilization in the Low-Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Nanjing 210095;Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Solid Organic Waste Resource Utilization,Nanjing 210095;Institute of Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Langfang 065000)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [2]海南省气象探测中心,海口570203 [3]南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044 [4]南京农业大学资源与环境科学学院,南京210095 [5]农业农村部长江中下游植物营养与肥料重点实验室,南京210095 [6]江苏省有机固体废弃物资源化协同创新中心,南京210095 [7]中国地质科学院地球物理地球化学勘查研究所,廊坊065000

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2022年第10期786-797,共12页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20190305);国家自然科学基金项目(41875177)。

摘　　要：基于海南岛主岛19个气象站点连续40a(1980-2019年)逐日气象数据及地形等要素,建立空间分析模型,综合确定海南岛绿橙种植气候适宜区指标。在气候适宜度模型基础上构建海南岛绿橙种植温度、日照、降水以及综合适宜度模型,采用地理信息系统(GIS)技术综合分析,利用自然点断法对绿橙种植气候适宜性进行精细化区划,并利用RCP4.5未来气候情景模式模拟数据探讨未来30a(2020-2049年)气候变化情景下海南岛绿橙种植适宜区变化趋势。结果表明:现阶段海南岛绿橙种植最适宜区主要分布于中部地区,面积0.87×10^(4)km^(2),气候适宜度为0.9~1.0;适宜区主要分布于东部局部地区及中西部大部地区,面积1.83×10^(4)km^(2),气候适宜度为0.7~0.9;次适宜区主要分布于西部沿海及中西部海拔较高地区,面积0.51×10^(4)km^(2),气候适宜度为0.4~0.7;不适宜区主要分布于中部山区,面积0.17×10^(4)km^(2),气候适宜度为0~0.4。未来气候变化情景下海南岛气温、降水分布呈较大变化,温度适宜区由四周向中部逐渐缩小,降水适宜区由东部逐渐迁移至中部地区。未来绿橙种植气候最适宜区主要分布于琼中、屯昌和保亭县大部分地区、万宁市西部及白沙县中东部等地。Green orange is a characteristic fruit and plays an important role in local agricultural production in Hainan island.However,few researches have been available regarding the climatic suitability of green orange planting in the island.Based on the last 40a(1980-2019)daily meteorological data,topographical and other factors from 19meteorological stations in the main island of Hainan island,a spatial analysis model is established to comprehensively determine the climate suitability index for green orange planting in the island.With climate suitability model,this study constructed the suitability models of temperature,sunshine and precipitation,as well as comprehensive suitability model for green orange planting.The methods of geographic information system(GIS)and natural point break were used in finely zoning green orange planting climate suitability.With the model simulation data of RCP4.5 climate scenario,this study assessed the trend of green orange planting suitability zone in the next 30y(2020-2049)under future climate change scenario.The results show that,the most suitable area for green orange planting is mainly distributed in the central region,with the subtotal area being 0.87×10^(4)km^(2),and the climate suitability index ranging from 0.9-1.0;the suitable area is mainly distributed in the eastern local region and most of the central and western regions,with the subtotal area being 1.83×10^(4)km^(2),and the climate suitability index being 0.7-0.9;the subsuitable area is mainly located in the western coastal,central and western high altitude regions,with subtotal area being 0.51×10^(4)km^(2),and the climate suitability index varying from 0.4-0.7;the unsuitable area is mainly distributed in the central mountainous region,with the subtotal area being 0.17×10^(4)km^(2),and the climate suitability index ranging from 0-0.4.Under the future climate scenario,the area with suitable temperature and precipitation will have large change,namely,the area with suitable temperature will gradually shrink from the surrou

关 键 词：绿橙 适宜性 气候区划 GIS 未来气候变化情景 

分 类 号：S666.4[农业科学—果树学] S162.55[农业科学—园艺学]