基于物候期的霜冻灾害林果减产风险评估:以河北省为例  

Risk Assessment of Frost Damage to Production of Forest Fruit Based on Phenological Phase in Hebei Province

作　　者：王瑛[1,2] 邱星霖 李雨欣 陈笑娟 陈小雷 WANG Ying;Qiu Xing-lin;LI Yu-xin;Chen Xiao-juan;Chen Xiao-lei(Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875;Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center,Shijiazhuang 050021)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]河北省气象灾害防御中心,石家庄050021

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2022年第10期821-831,共11页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：河北省省级科技计划(V1623765610711)。

摘　　要：基于河北省气象站点1974-2015年气温数据,计算每年1月以来各地的积温,从而确定每年3个易受霜冻灾害影响的苹果和杏的物候期即初蕾期、花期、幼果期的起始和结束时间;再基于Gumbel分布计算不同重现期下三个物候期的日最低气温,即霜冻灾害的危险强度;结合由相关文献构建的三个物候期的脆弱性曲线即日最低温度所对应的减产率,评估霜冻灾害减产风险。以百年一遇重现期为例,河北省北部地区的苹果和杏在幼果期和花期更容易遭受霜冻的影响,张家口市各个物候期受影响最大,平均减产率高达47.44%,花期风险最高,减产59.79%;承德市苹果和杏的花期,减产率达51.42%;而南部地区的邢台市相对特殊,初蕾期减产率最高,达37.91%,根据评估结果,可以针对性地加强这些地区各个物候期的霜冻灾害监测预警,适当调整种植结构,加快研制新型环保的林果抗低温防护技术。The research takes apples and apricots of Hebei province as examples,based on the temperature data of meteorological stations from 1974 to 2015,and calculates accumulated temperature of each region since January,to determine the three phenological periods that are susceptible to frost disasters every year:the starting and the ending of initial budding stage,flowering stage and young fruit stage.Then the research calculates the daily minimum temperature of three phenological periods at different return periods based on the Gumbel distribution,which reveals the dangerous intensity of frost disaster,and evaluates the risk of production reduction due to frost disasters according to the vulnerability curve of the three phenological periods(the yield reduction rate corresponding to the daily minimum temperature)constructed from relevant literature.Taking the once-in-a-hundred-year return period as an example,apples and apricots in northern Hebei province were more likely to be affected by frost during the young fruit period and flowering period.Zhangjiakou city was most affected during each phenological period,with an average yield reduction rate of 47.44%.Among different periods,the risk of flowering period was the highest,the yield was reduced by 59.79%,in the flowering period,the risk of yield reduction of apples and apricots in Chengde city was up to 51.42%,while in the southern region of Hebei province,Xingtai city was relatively special,with the highest yield reduction rate at the initial budding stage,reaching 37.91%.According to the above evaluation results,targeted enhancements at frost disaster monitoring and early warning in each phenological period in these areas can be made.Adjust the planting structure properly,and speed up the development of new environmentally friendly forest and fruit anti-low temperature protection technologies.

关 键 词：霜冻 风险评估 减产 物侯期 水果 

分 类 号：S425[农业科学—植物保护] S66