双循环金融战略链接、金融中心风险生成机理及政策研究:兼论上海在岸离岸金融的互动发展  

Financial Strategic Link of Dual Cycle,Risk Generation Mechanism of Financial Center and the Corresponding Countermeasures: A Study Based on Shanghai

作　　者：高洪民[1] 管乐 Gao Hongmin;Guan Yue

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2022年第9期109-118,M0004,共11页World Economy Studies

基　　金：上海社会科学院创新工程(第二轮)团队项目之“构建和上海金融中心相匹配的离岸金融体系”项目;国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代我国金融开放战略研究——形成全面开放新格局的目标与路径”(项目号:18ZDA090)。

摘　　要：文章以促进构建新发展格局为基本导向,探讨上海发挥双循环金融战略链接功能的内涵和理论基础。研究发现:市场型信贷配给和资本利得预期积累效应是经济脱实向虚和债务积累形成的两大重要内生机制;金融市场同向波动风险、企业融资方式关联性传染风险、金融产品关联性传染风险、债务合同式泡沫崩溃与实体经济危机连锁反应风险4种风险传导方式在国际金融中心风险生成机理中可能发挥作用。文章根据对14家金融部门的深入调研,提出构建上海双循环金融战略链接的时空路径及多项具有策略性和可操作性的对策建议。Based on the guidance of promoting the construction of a new development pattern,this paper firstly discusses the connotation and theoretical basis of giving full play to the financial strategic link function of double cycle in Shanghai international financial center,and then puts forward that market-oriented credit rationing and expected accumulation effect of capital gains are two important endogenous mechanisms for the formation of debt accumulation and economic disenchantment from reality to emptiness.At the same time,it puts forward that the risk of co-directional fluctuation of financial markets,the related infectious risk of enterprise financing mode,the risk of contagion of financial products,the collapse of debt contract bubble and the chain reaction risk of real economy crisis,will play important roles in the mechanism of risk formation in international financial centers. According to the investigation of fourteen financial sectors,the paper finally proposes the space-time path of building the double cycle financial strategic link in Shanghai and a number of strategic and operable countermeasures and suggestions.

关 键 词：金融战略链接 金融中心风险 对策建议 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学]