几种旱涝指数在华南春季适用性的对比分析  

Comparison and Analysis of the Applicability of a Number of Drought/Flood Indexes for the Spring of Southern China

作　　者：彭窈 谭勇展 蒋熙 彭劲洪 苏艳雯 PENG Yao;TAN Yong-zhan;JIANG Xi;PENG Jing-hong;SU Yan-wen(Meteorological Bureau of Qingxin District,Qingyuan,Qingyuan 511800;Foshan Branch,Guangdong Putian Lightning Protection and Detection Co.Ltd,Foshan 528500;Meteorological Bureau of Yongfu,Yongfu 541899;Meteorological Bureau of Yingde,Yingde 513000)

机构地区：[1]清远市清新区气象局,广东清远511800 [2]广东普天防雷检测有限责任公司佛山分公司,广东佛山528500 [3]永福县气象局,广西永福541899 [4]英德市气象局,广东英德513000

出　　处：《广东气象》2022年第5期6-10,42,共6页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：广东省气象局科研项目:华南春季旱涝特征及其与海温的关联性分析(GRMC2021XQ26)。

摘　　要：基于1961—2016年华南春季42个站点的Pa指数、Z指数、SPI、SPEI,采用相关分析、正态分布检验等方法,结合历史旱涝灾害实况,讨论各旱涝指数的适用性。结果表明:(1)在区域旱涝指数的时间变化和旱涝发生频率的空间分布上,SPEI更容易识别旱涝发生,敏感性强;Pa指数识别旱涝发生的能力较弱,敏感性差,识别的旱涝等级偏低。(2)从区域指数和42个站点指数的正态分布检验发现,SPI的检验结果较差,SPEI的检验结果最优,旱涝等级划分较为合理。(3)分析佛冈、徐闻、河池的各指数特征,认为Pa指数的敏感性和稳定性差、等级划分不合理;Z指数和SPI能大致描述华南春季旱涝特征,但不能体现蒸散作用的影响;SPEI敏感性强,可以识别降水和气温差异对于旱涝的影响,能够表现旱涝的局地差异性。综合认为,SPEI较为适用于研究华南春季旱涝气候。Based on the Pa and Z indexes and SP and SPE indexes(to be referred to as “SPI” and “SPEI” respectively hereafter) from 42 observation sites in southern China from 1961 to 2016 and with the methods of correlation analysis and normal distribution test, this work discusses the applicability of a number of indexes with reference to historical drought and flood damages. The results are shown as follows.(1) For the temporal variation of regional drought and flood indexes and the spatial distribution frequency of drought and flood occurrences, the SPEI is more sensitive and more likely to identify the occurrence of drought and flood than the Pa index, which identifies drought and flood with lower levels of severity.(2) It is known from a normal distribution test of the regional indexes and individual indexes for the 42 observation sites that the SPI shows poor test results while the SPEI has the best test results and yields relatively reasonable classification of drought and flood levels.(3) It is known from an analysis of the characteristics of individual indexes for the counties of Fogang, Xuwen and Hechi that the Pa index shows poor sensitivity and stability with unreasonable classification of severity levels. The Z index and SPI describe the general characteristics of the drought and flood in southern China but cannot reflect on the effect of evapotranspiration. The SPEI is sensitive, identifies the precipitation and the effect of temperature difference on drought and flood, and shows the local difference of drought and flood. Summing up, the SPEI is the most applicable index for the study on the climate of drought and flood in the spring of southern China.

关 键 词：气候学 旱涝 SPEI 春季 华南 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]