1965—2020年梅州市气象干旱特征分析  

Analysis of the Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Meizhou from 1965 to 2020

作　　者：黄浩明 陈金星 李思敏 HUANG Hao-ming;CHEN Jin-xing;LI Si-min(Meteorological Bureau of Wuhua,Wuhua 514400;Meteorological Bureau of Dapu,Dapu 514200;Meteorological Bureau of Pinyuan,Pinyuan 514600)

机构地区：[1]五华县气象局,广东五华514400 [2]大埔县气象局,广东大埔514200 [3]平远县气象局,广东平远514600

出　　处：《广东气象》2022年第5期20-23,共4页Guangdong Meteorology

摘　　要：基于梅州市1965—2020年单站逐日气象干旱指数DI,通过计算得到月干旱指数MI、年干旱指数YI和年干旱强度,采用线性趋势分析、M-K突变检验以及Molet小波分析等方法,分析56年来梅州地区的干旱变化特征。结果表明:(1)1965—2020年梅州的气象干旱程度与月平均雨量具有显著的负相关关系,秋末到初春极易发生气象干旱但极端干旱事件发生概率小。(2)1965—2020年干旱趋势总体上是加强的,但不显著;20世纪80年代初期到90年代末期经历了一个平稳阶段。(3)M-K突变检验表明1965—1969和2004—2015年梅州干旱趋向加强,1972—2003年干旱趋向减弱,但均不显著;1966、1968和2002年前后分别发生一次突变。(4)梅州干旱演变过程中存在准16、8和3年振荡周期,其中准3年周期是干旱变化的主周期。(5)年干旱强度的特征与年干旱指数YI的特征相似,非干旱过程的DI极值对干旱过程的影响不大。Based on a day-to-day index(DI) for meteorological drought from observations stations in Meizhou from 1965 to 2020, this work determines a monthly index(MI), a yearly index(YI) and an annual drought index and analyzes the characteristics of drought variation in the region over the 56 years studied using the methods of linear tendency, Mann-Kendall abruptness test and Morlet wavelet. The results are shown as follows.(1) The meteorological drought of Meizhou for the years studied was much negatively correlated with monthly mean rain amount, with the time from late autumn to early spring very likely to experience meteorological drought, though the probability for an extreme drought event to happen is small.(2) For the years studied, the drought was generally intensified but insignificantly and experienced a relatively smooth period from early 1980 s to late 1990 s.(3) As shown in the Mann-Kendall abruptness test, the drought of Meizhou intensified from 1965 to 1969 and from 2004 to 2015, and weakened from 1972 to 2003, both insignificantly though. Abrupt changes took place around 1966, 1968 and 2002.(4) There are oscillating periods at quasi-16,-8 and-3 years in the evolution of the Meizhou drought, with the quasi-3-year period being the primary period of drought variation.(5) The characteristics of annual drought intensity are similar to those of the YI, the annual index, and the extreme values of DI for non-drought processes have no major impact on drought processes.

关 键 词：气候学 干旱指数 线性趋势分析 小波分析 梅州市 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]