基于系统动力学的区域金融生态系统稳定性研究——以河北省为例  

Systematic Dynamics of Regional Financial Ecosystem Stability——The Example of Hebei Province

作　　者：李媛媛[1] 陈文静 LI Yuan-yuan;CHEN Wen-jing(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2022年第3期125-130,共6页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：河北省社科基金项目“多重融合背景下河北省金融生态系统运行与稳定性研究”(HB17YJ047)。

摘　　要：为考察金融生态系统的稳定性,从金融生态主体、环境、调节三个维度出发,构造金融生态系统动力学模型,运用稳定性指标进行预警研究,模拟多种冲击对当前系统的影响,探索现有系统所能承受的最大冲击,并以河北省为例,确定模型具体参数。研究结果表明,总体而言,环境子系统的稳定性较高,主体子系统的波动性最强,2020年以后河北省金融生态系统便处于安全状态。在具体冲击情景下,P2P停业对系统影响较小且有利于后期发展;银行业智能化转型不可一蹴而就,营业部一次性缩减上限为3.1%;新冠疫情若在上半年末得到控制,对金融生态系统影响较小。In order to study the stability of the financial ecosystem,a financial ecosystem dynamic model is constructed from the perspectives of the financial ecological subject,the environment,and the action chain.Taking Hebei Province as an example,specific model parameters are determined,and stability indicators are used for early warning research.The impact of multiple shocks on the current system is simulated,and the largest shocks that the existing system can receive is explored.The research results show that the stability of the environmental subsystem is high,and the main subsystem is the most volatile,and the financial ecosystem of Hebei Province will be in a safe state from 2020 onwards.Under the set scenario,P2 P suspension will have a small impact on the system and be conducive to later development;the intelligent transformation of the banking industry cannot be achieved overnight,and the one-time reduction of bank branches is capped at 3.1%;if the new coronavirus is brought under control in the first quarter,it will have less impact on the financial ecosystem.

关 键 词：金融生态系统 稳定性 系统动力学 系统预警 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学] F830[经济管理—金融学]