Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City,Indonesia  

作　　者：Juni Wijayanti Puspita Muhammad Fakhruddin Nuning Nuraini Edy Soewono 

机构地区：[1]Doctoral Program of Mathematics,Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences,Institut Teknologi Bandung,Jl.Ganesha,10,Bandung,40132,Jawa Barat,Indonesia [2]Department of Mathematics,Faculty of Military Mathematics and Natural Sciences,The Republic of Indonesia Defense University,IPSC Area,Sentul,Bogor,16810,Indonesia [3]Department of Mathematics,Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences,Institut Teknologi Bandung,Jl.Ganesha,10,Bandung,40132,Jawa Barat,Indonesia

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2022年第3期430-447,共18页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：Part of the research is funded by the Indonesian PDUPT RistekBrin 2021(No:120M/IT1.C02/TA.00/2021);the Indonesian Penelitian Disertasi Doktor RistekBrin 2021(No:120J/IT1.C02/TA.00/2021).

摘　　要：Dengue virus infection is a leading health problem in many endemic countries,including Indonesia,characterized by high morbidity and wide spread.It is known that the risk factors that influence the transmission intensity vary among different age groups,which can have implications for dengue control strategies.A time-dependent four−age structure model of dengue transmission was constructed in this study.A vaccination scenario as control strategy was also applied to one of the age groups.Daily incidence data of dengue cases from Santo Borromeus Hospital,Bandung,Indonesia,from 2014 to 2016 was used to estimate the infection rate.We used two indicators to identify the changes in dengue transmission intensity for this period in each age group:the annual force of infection(FoI)and the effective reproduction ratio based on a time-dependent transmission rate.The results showed that the yearly FoI of children(age 0–4 years)increased significantly from 2014 to 2015,at 10.08%.Overall,the highest FoI before and after vaccination occurred in youngsters(age 5–14 years),with a FoI of about 6%per year.In addition,based on the daily effective reproduction ratio,it was found that vaccination of youngsters could reduce the number of dengue cases in Bandung city faster than vaccination of children.

关 键 词：age structure model dengue transmission effective reproduction ratio force of infection 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]