中国和毛里求斯自贸区建设的经济效应研究  

A Study on the Economic Effects of the Construction of Free Trade Area Between China and Mauritius

作　　者：计飞 刘继森[1] JI Fei;LIU Ji-sen

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学非洲研究院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2022年第9期70-82,共13页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：广东省哲学社科规划青年项目(GD20YHQ01);广东省普通高校青年创新人才类项目(2018WQNCX034);广东外语外贸大学非洲研究院重点招标课题(HX-FZ2022-1);广东外语外贸大学国际关系学院国际问题研究一般项目(GG2022002)。

摘　　要：在对中国和毛里求斯双边贸易水平和具体商品类别进行统计分析的基础上,文章严格按照《中华人民共和国政府和毛里求斯共和国政府自由贸易协定》中关税减让表提及的关税减免实施期和等比例降低方式予以设置对应情形,利用GTAP10数据库和一般均衡模型,对该协定的潜在经济效应进行了分析。模拟结果表明,随着自贸协定的生效,中国和毛里求斯的GDP、贸易条件、进出口水平和居民收入均会得到一定程度的提升,且毛里求斯的提升幅度会明显高于中国。行业进出口模拟结果和敏感性检验也支持上述结论,且符合趋势性变化特征。未来中国可以同更多有意愿的非洲国家和地区开展自贸协定谈判,不断拓展中非自贸区建设布局。Based on the statistical analysis of the bilateral trade level and the specific commodity categories between China and Mauritius,this paper strictly follows the implementation period of tariff concession and the method of equal proportional reduction mentioned in the tariff reduction table in China-Mauritius Free Trade Agreement to set up the corresponding situations,and uses GTAP10 database and general equilibrium model to analyze the potential economic effects of China-Mauritius Free Trade Agreement.The simulation results show that with the entry into force of China-Mauritius Free Trade Agreement,the GDP,terms of trade,import and export level,and resident income of China and Mauritius will be improved,and Mauritius will have a more significant increase in these aspects than China.The industry import and export simulation results and sensitivity tests also support the conclusions mentioned above and meet the trend change characteristics.In the future,China could carry out free trade agreement negotiations with more willing African countries and regions,and continue to expand the construction layout of China-Africa Free Trade Area.

关 键 词：中非自贸区 自由贸易协定 关税减免 一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]