长三角城市群碳排放强度的空间效应及影响因素——基于产业转移视角  

Spatial effects and influencing factors of carbon emission intensity in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration:An industrial transfer-based perspective

作　　者：朱泳丽 丁利杰 ZHU Yongli;DING Lijie(Institute of Industrial Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Hebei Finance University,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [2]河北金融学院,保定071000

出　　处：《资源科学》2022年第7期1373-1387,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：中国社会科学院工业经济研究所“双碳目标下产业发展”专题。

摘　　要：长三角城市群协同发展背景下,城市间产业转移频繁,伴随经济和碳排放的连接,对城市碳排放强度产生的影响成为区域低碳发展需要考虑的重要战略问题。本文采用动态偏离-份额模型测度城市间产业转入和转出量。基于空间全局自相关、反距离空间权重和经济地理权重矩阵下的空间杜宾模型,对2005—2017年26个长三角城市的产业转移动态、碳排放强度的时空演变特征进行研究,在空间溢出视角下对城市碳排放强度的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)碳排放强度存在显著的空间自相关性,具有明显的空间溢出效应。(2)长三角城市群内频繁转移的产业多数为非能源密集型产业,产业转移并未产生显著“碳减排”效应。值得注意的是,产业转移的经济影响开始显现,产业转移实际上不利于长三角城市群整体碳排放量减少。(3)人均GDP与碳排放强度呈现“倒U型”,技术水平与碳排放强度呈现“U型”,存在“技术进步的反弹效应”,人口数的增加降低了碳排放强度,二产比重正向作用于碳排放强度。因此在制订碳减排计划时,需要考虑不同区域生产效率、能耗强度、人力资本等因素,做好产业转入、转出的碳排放强度监测,避免盲目进行产业转移;壮大优势产业,改善产业结构,培育新增长点,发展符合城市自身禀赋的低能耗产业。Under the background of coordinated development of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta, inter-city industrial transfer is frequent. Due to the connection of the economy and carbon emissions, the impact on urban carbon emission intensity has become an important strategic issue to be considered for regional low-carbon development. In this study, the dynamic shift-share model was employed to measure the amount of industrial transfer in and out of the cities. Based on the spatial global autocorrelation, the spatial Durbin model of inverse distance spatial weight matrix, and economic geographical weight matrix, this study examined the industrial transfer dynamics and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emission intensity of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005 to 2017, and analyzed the influencing factors of urban carbon emission intensity from the spatial spillover perspective. The results show that:(1)Carbon emission intensity shows significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial spillover effects.(2)Most of the frequently transferred industries in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are non-energy-intensive industries. Industrial transfer does not produce significant carbon emission reduction effect. It is worth noting that the economic impact of industrial transfer is beginning to emerge, but industrial transfer is not conducive to carbon emission reduction.(3) The relationship between per capita GDP and carbon intensity is inverted U shaped. Technological development level and carbon intensity shows a U-shaped relationship, which indicates the“rebound effect”of the technological progress. Population growth lowers the carbon emission intensity. Proportion of the secondary industry has positive effects on carbon emission intensity. When making carbon emission reduction plans, the production efficiency, energy intensity, and human capital in different regions need to be taken into account. Local governments should monitor the carbon emission intensity whe

关 键 词：产业转移 动态偏离-份额模型 碳排放强度 空间效应 长三角城市群 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]