City-level emission peak and drivers in China  

中国地级及以上城市碳排放达峰及驱动力分析

作　　者：Yuli Shan Yuru Guan Ye Hang Heran Zheng Yanxian Li Dabo Guan Jiashuo Li Ya Zhou Li Li Klaus Hubacek 单钰理;关玉儒;杭叶;郑赫然;李彦显;关大博;李佳硕;周雅;李莉;Klaus Hubacek(School of Geography,Earth and Environmental Sciences,University of Birmingham,Birmingham B152TT,UK;Integrated Research on Energy,Environment and Society,Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen,University of Groningen,Groningen 9747 AG,Netherlands;College of Economics and Management&Research Centre for Soft Energy Science,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction,University College London,London WC1E 6BT,UK;Industrial Ecology Programme,Norwegian University of Science and Technology,Trondheim 7491,Norway Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Blue and Green Development,Shandong University,Weihai 264209,China;Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development,Ministry of Education,School of Ecology,Environment and Resources,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences)

机构地区：[1]School of Geography,Earth and Environmental Sciences,University of Birmingham,Birmingham B152TT,UK [2]Integrated Research on Energy,Environment and Society,Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen,University of Groningen,Groningen 9747 AG,Netherlands [3]College of Economics and Management&Research Centre for Soft Energy Science,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China [4]The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction,University College London,London WC1E 6BT,UK [5]Industrial Ecology Programme,Norwegian University of Science and Technology,Trondheim 7491,Norway Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100871,China [6]Institute of Blue and Green Development,Shandong University,Weihai 264209,China [7]Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development,Ministry of Education,School of Ecology,Environment and Resources,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China [8]School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2022年第18期1910-1920,M0004,共12页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72140001 and 41921005);Shandong Provincial Science Fund for Excellent Youth Scholars(ZR2021YQ27);the National Social Science Fund of China(21ZDA065);the Natural Environment Research Council(2021GRIP02COP-AQ)。

摘　　要：China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation,and local authorities need more city-specifc information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon policies.This study provides the most comprehensive COemission inventories of 287 Chinese cities from 2001 to2019.The emission inventories are compiled for 47 economic sectors and include energy-related emissions for 17 types of fossil fuels and process-related emissions from cement production.We further investigate the state of the emission peak in each city and reveal hidden driving forces.The results show that38 cities have proactively peaked their emissions for at least fve years and another 21 cities also have emission decline,but passively.The 38 proactively peaked cities achieved emission decline mainly by effciency improvements and structural changes in energy use,while the 21 passively emission declined cities reduced emissions at the cost of economic recession or population loss.We propose that those passively emission declined cities need to face up to the reasons that caused the emission to decline,and fully exploit the opportunities provided by industrial innovation and green investment brought by low-carbon targets to achieve economic recovery and carbon mitigation goals.Proactively peaked cities need to seek strategies to maintain the downward trend in emissions and avoid an emission rebound and thus provide successful models for cities with still growing emissions to achieve an emission peak.中国在推进全球气候变化减缓中扮演着重要的角色.以城市为单位的碳排放趋势和达峰模式研究可为中国碳排放达峰目标的兑现与低碳转型路线的落地提供支撑.本研究编制了中国287个地级及以上城市2001~2019年二氧化碳排放清单,涵盖47个社会经济部门、17种化石燃料燃烧和水泥生产过程相关排放,并探究了各城市的碳排放达峰状态及其驱动力.结果表明,截至2019年,全国共有59个地级及以上城市出现了碳排放的持续下降,其中38个城市为主动达峰型,21个城市则是被动下降型.38个主动达峰城市碳减排的主要驱动力为能源效率提高和能源结构调整,而21个被动下降城市的碳减排在一定程度上是由经济衰退或人口流失所导致的.未来,排放被动下降城市应抓住低碳目标带来的产业创新和绿色投资机遇,瞄准经济复苏和碳减排目标,实现排放与经济发展的强脱钩;主动达峰城市则应进一步探寻碳排放下降趋势的长久维持策略,为未达峰城市提供成功经验.

关 键 词：CO2 emissions Emission peak DRIVERS CITY Climate change 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]